REVEALED: Reform poised for General Election landslide after Runcorn by-election win - would YOUR seat turn turquoise?

WATCH NOW: Ann Widdecombe declares a 'strong sensation of change' in UK politics as Reform continue to secure election victories

GB News
Susanna Siddell

By Susanna Siddell


Published: 02/05/2025

- 17:25

Updated: 02/05/2025

- 17:52

The keys to No10 are now well within Nigel Farage's grasp, our projection suggests

As the results of the local council election flood in, Nigel Farage is on track to win the next General Election by a comfortable margin, our shock analysis of the numbers shows.

The devastating blow to Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch comes after swathes of their former heartlands were conquered by the "People's Army" on Friday.


Reform's takeover of English county councils included winning the much-anticipated Runcorn and Helsby by-election this morning.

After being forced into a recount in the Cheshire constituency, Reform's Sarah Pochin pipped Labour candidate Karen Shore to the post by just six votes - the smallest margin in a parliamentary by-election since the end of the Second World War.

Electoral Calculus

All eyes now turned towards the next General Election, with Reform poised to win a commanding majority

Electoral Calculus

Now, all eyes are on the next General Election, with speculation swirling around the possibility that the Brexit supremo could be marching up the steps of Downing Street in just a few years.

Thanks to data supplied by Electoral Calculus founder and CEO Martin Baxter, GB News can reveal how the parliamentary make-up of Britain might look in 2029 using figures from the narrow by-election victory.

The modelling hands Reform a 212 majority - meaning Farage's party would win a landslide larger than Sir Tony Blair's historic 1997 win.

The same data suggests that the Tories would be almost entirely wiped out, leaving the historic party with a humiliating four representatives in Westminster - double the size of the Green Party.

Meanwhile, Labour would retain 152 seats, predominantly across London and parts of Scotland.

The Liberal Democrats would take home 17 seats, while the SNP would be in for 22 seats, under the modelling.

Armed with hundreds of local councillors scattered across England, the Clacton MP will continue to call on his loyal followers to help him turn this projection into a reality.

Speaking to the People's Channel ahead of the local elections, former Mid Kent and Faversham candidate Max Harrison was sure that Farage would one day become PM.

chart showing seat breakdown

Labour would retain 152 seats, predominantly across London and parts of Scotland

Electoral Calculus

"Of course, he will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom," Max Harrison told GB News, adding: "There's no doubt about it."

He continued: "He's the only man who can win us the General Election and save our country.

"Because it doesn’t matter if you're left, centre or right - we can all see this country is on its knees in terms of its culture, community, economy.

"He is the only man in politics who can save it and make it great again."