Interview with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar after the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election
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Some of the rightwing Nationalists who joined the coalition of support before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum have now deserted the SNP
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This was an expectations defying win for Labour in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election over the SNP, after winning the seat with a 602 majority.
It is a huge boost both for PM Sir Keir Starmer - who did not campaign in Hamilton - after a brutal 11 months and for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar ahead of next year's Holyrood elections.
And a big blow to the SNP, which had been expected to hold the seat as it had done since 2011.
The other winner is Reform UK, which won just 58 votes and came 12th in the seat the last time it was contested in 2021. Last night Reform won 7,088 votes and came third.
What's going on? It looks to me that voters here in Hamilton described to me last night as "shy Reformers" came over to Nigel Farage's party at the expense of the SNP - down 16.8pc on 2021 - and the Tories - down 11.5pc.
It seems that some of the rightwing Nationalists who joined the coalition of support built by the late Alex Salmond before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum have now deserted the SNP.
Nigel Farage's Reform UK won 7,088 votes and came third in last night's vote
PA
This by-election was fought under First Past The Post, which is why reports that Labour flooded the seat with 200 activists made such a difference.
It also means that Reform UK is at a disadvantage, as the inexperienced party lacks the necessary data of where its supporters live to get the vote out against the two legacy parties.
And Reform will benefit from the list system which assigns a proportion of MSPs according to vote share at the Scottish Parliament elections.
Reform insiders are now tells me they are looking at winning between 20 and 30 MSPs at next year's Holyrood elections. One said: "With a year to go, could we win more seats than either SNP or Labour?
This would be extraordinary given the fact that party leader Nigel Farage did not even campaign north of the Border at last year's general election.
The Conservatives now have a barely detectable electoral pulse in Scotland, finishing a distant fourth with just 1,621 votes, barely saving their deposit. No wonder polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice said that Reform was “eating” the Conservatives for “lunch, breakfast and dinner”.
The Conservatives now have a barely detectable electoral pulse in Scotland, finishing behind Reform UK in a distant fourth with just 1,621 votes
PA
This is only a by-election, a snapshot of voter sentiment, and all the usual caveats apply.
But suddenly it looks like the SNP's 18 years long control over Scotland could end next year - and Labour is the beneficiary.
And Reform has decisively shaken off its English nationalist tag hoovering up votes for the SNP and the Tories.
There will be more twists and turns but the next 11 months before the 2026 Scottish parliament elections suddenly look very interesting indeed.
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