Nigel Farage leaves Labour rattled as Reform's turquoise tartan offensive faces crunch SNP test

Hamilton’s Holyrood seat voted SNP in all three contests held since its inception in 2011 - with Ukip receiving just 673 votes in 2016 and Reform UK’s support dropping to just 58 ballots in 2021.

And the towns have stuck to returning either SNP or Labour MPs to Westminster for the best part of a century.

South Lanarkshire is not traditionally considered fertile ground for Farage’s brand of Eurosceptic politics.

Following Farage’s decision to shun campaign trips north of the border due to an altercation at a pub in Edinburgh, just 36.9 per cent of local residents voted for Brexit.

But Reform is now confident Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse could spark a turquoise tidal wave north of the border.

“It’s a two-horse race between the SNP and Reform UK and we’re going to give it a massive push,” Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice said.

First Minister John Swinney agrees and is even challenging Farage to a head-to-head debate.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is not shying away from a bout with the Brexit supremo either, having already invited Farage to a debate after accusing Reform of releasing a “racist” advert against him.

The advert, which accuses Sarwar of vowing to prioritise the Pakistani community, has overshadowed much of the campaign.

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However, on the ground in Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse, voters' fury is mostly reserved for Labour.

Labour’s candidate Davy Russell has been accused of “running scared” and described as an “invisible man” after ducking local hustings and steering clear of taking part in too many televised media appearances.

And things went from bad to worse for Labour on Friday when Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner was forced to abandon her Central Belt visit after being mobbed by pro-Palestine protesters.

Meanwhile, Reform UK’s by-election candidate Ross Lambie is detecting strong levels of support ahead of Thursday.

Speaking to GB News after a long day of campaigning, Lambie said: “There is a sense of urgency on the doors.

“People feel the country is facing a pivotal moment where we either surrender to another 10 years of nothingness and another lost generation, or we have the guts to make some big decisions, like scrap net zero and direct that funding to our local services, cut waiting lists, boost policing, and lower the tax burden.”

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Explaining why Reform is receiving a particularly strong bounce north of the border, the former Tory Councillor added: “We are picking up support from working people from all corners of our communities.

“Our support is not defined or pigeon holed like the old parties of Labour and the SNP.

“Our message of Family, Community, Country is resonating, especially now as we add more flesh to our policy platform.

“Restoring the Winter Fuel Allowance, raising the income tax threshold to make work pay, and reversing our crashing birth rates, with family focused policies like dropping the two-child benefit cap shows that Reform is really on the side of the average Scottish person on the street.”

And despite Farage shunning visits to Scotland after being rushed away from crowds of protesters outside a bustling Edinburgh boozer in 2013, the Reform UK leader is being tipped to venture up to Hamilton ahead of June 5.

But Reform’s rise in Scotland is perhaps more difficult to explain than the surge seen in England and Wales, two nations where Farage already managed to secure significant electoral breakthroughs.

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Merlin Strategy founder Scarlett Maguire told the People’s Channel: "Reform's cut through north of the border by taking efforts to detoxify, starting with Nigel Farage in the I'm A Celeb jungle last year.

“A mood of anti-mainstream politics has blown away Labour's progress after they'd capitalised on unhappiness with the SNP."

And a set of local defections and stellar council by-elections performances have fuelled Farage’s momentum ahead of June 5.

Despite getting little traction in Hamilton, Tory turbulence is almost certainly propelling Reform forwards.

Farage’s defectors north of the border have trickled in at the expense of the Conservative Party and Reform even finished in a close second in first preference votes in Clydebank Waterfront’s recent council by-election, leaving Labour in third and the Tories in fifth.

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Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay is also singing very much from Reform's hymn sheet, sparking a Liberal Democrat defection from Jamie Greene.

Shadow Scottish Secretary Andrew Bowie ramped up the pressure, warning Findlay against "aping Nigel Farage at every available opportunity".

However, Reform’s surge is also providing the SNP with a new opportunity.

As Labour’s woes hand the nationalist party a much-needed revival, providing a voice for anti-Farage voters could shore up an otherwise flimsy coalition of voters.

While Swinney’s anti-Reform summit in April was blasted by the Tories, Labour and Liberal Democrats, it also ensured the SNP could position itself as the main "stop Farage" party.

Maguire added: "Running an anti-Reform campaign could work better for the SNP in Scotland than it does for Labour in England, who struggled to turn this into a winning strategy in Runcorn and the locals."

Despite Reform expecting to overperform compared to Farage’s previous showings in Scotland, pollsters do not expect them to emerge victorious on June 5.

However, the reaction of the other parties proves that Reform’s Scottish surge will leave its mark on Holyrood in 2026.

Labour fears Swinney is painting Farage as his primary opponent to detract from the SNP’s record in power, a similar allegation levelled at Sir Keir Starmer.

“John Swinney wants to make this by-election about Reform because he has no ideas for the future and cannot defend his Government’s record,” a Scottish Labour source told GB News.

“Nigel Farage and Reform are not on the side of working people, they do not care about this community, and people will see right through them.

“The SNP deserve to lose this by-election and only Scottish Labour can beat them.”

And Labour received a slight boost when the campaign group Scotland in Union refused to support Reform UK in Hamilton.

Scotland in Union chief Alastair Cameron accused Farage of letting the SNP in “by the back door” after the Reform leader ruled out propping up a Sarwar-led Government in Holyrood.

Cameron said: “We need politicians who will work in Scotland’s interests. Farage's latest statements suggest that the only interests he prioritises are his own."

And despite Reform's unprecedented rise north of the border, the spectre of Farage entering No10 could push Scotland towards independence.

A Norstat survey for The Sunday Times found support for independence jumps from 54 per cent to 58 per cent in the hypothetical scenario that a referendum is held while Farage serves as Prime Minister.

However, the SNP is not going after Reform on the issue of independence or Unionism.

An SNP spokesman said: "Farage poses a threat to our NHS, and we will confront him at every turn.

"SNP policies like record funding for our NHS, free prescriptions and free tuition - that's what it is to put Scotland first, which the SNP will always do.

"These policies are under threat from the likes of Farage. Only a vote for the SNP can stop Reform UK on June 5."

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse by-election candidates: Scottish Socialist Collette Bradley, Scottish Family, Andy Brady, Reform UK Ross Lambie, SNP Katy Loudon, Ukip Janice Elizabeth Mackay, Scottish Green Ann McGuiness, Liberal Democrats Aisha Jawaid Mir, Conservative Richard Nelson, Labour Davy Russell, and independent Marc Wilkinson.