Reform UK are set to make major gains in several London boroughs, with one expert giving his take on exactly where Nigel Farage can target in the capital.
Despite popularity for Reform being lower in London than the rest of the UK, a higher share of voters said they would consider voting for Reform in the future, according to new polling.
The recently formed party has seen significant gains in the capital, with Alex Wilson being elected as its first London Assembly member in May last year.
The party's continued surge resulted in Kent County Council, located not far from London, turning from a longtime blue to turquoise.
Reform UK are set to make major gains in several London boroughs
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Across Britain, Nigel Farage's Reform had the third-highest vote share in the country at the 2024 election, gaining half a million more votes than the Liberal Democrats.
Polling indicates that support for the political movement, which stood at 14 per cent at the General Election, is continuing to surge.
London politics expert Prof Tony Travers told the Politics London programme that the party "could do very well indeed in some of the outer London boroughs, particularly I would say those that voted Leave in the Brexit referendum, so Barking and Dagenham, Havering, Bexley, Hillingdon, even Sutton".
He added: "Those are the places I think they could well do a lot of damage to the incumbent parties."
The recently formed party has seen significant gains in the capital
GB NEWS
Barking & Dagenham
Barking & Dagenham is divided into two constituencies with each Reform coming in second place in both.
Labour backbencher Nesil Caliskan secured the Barking seat in the 2024 election, defeating the Reform candidate by over 30 per cent of the vote.
Despite the large margin, support for the MP plummeted 16 per cent whilst the share change for the turquoise party soared over seven per cent.
While a gap of over 10,000 votes separates the rival parties, Reforms' growing momentum makes the constituency a top target for Farage and his party.
The result was similarly reflected in the Dagenham and Rainham seat where Labour's Margaret Mullane defeated Reform's Kevin Godfrey by 18 per cent of the vote.
Barking 2024 General Election result:
- Nesil Caliskan - Labour - 16,227
- Clive Peacock - Reform UK - 5,173
Dagenham and Rainham 2024 General Election result:
- Margaret Mullane - Labour - 16,571
- Kevin Godfrey - Reform UK - 9,398
Polling indicates that support for the political movement is continuing to surge
GETTY
Havering
Reform UK found itself in a three-horse race in both of Havering's constituencies.
The borough is split into two seats, Hornchurch & Upminster and Romford.
Tory MP Andrew Rosindell held the Romford seat despite a 30 per cent drop in voter share in an election where the party lost 251 of its seats across Britain.
Nigel Farage's party leapfrogged into contention, gaining over a fifth of the total vote.
Over in Hornchurch & Upminster, Reform surged into second place but were narrowly pipped to the post by the Conservatives' Julia Louise Lopez.
Romford 2024 General Election result:
- Andrew Rosindell - Conservative - 15,339
- Andrew Achilleos - Labour - 13,876
- Philip Hyde - Reform UK - 9,624
Hornchurch & Upminster 2024 General Election result:
- Julia Louise Lopez - Conservative - 15,260
- Nick Palmer - Reform UK - 13,317
- Sunny Brar - Labour -12,939
Hillingdon
Hillingdon is divided into three parliamentary seats - Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner; Hayes and Harlington; and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Reform UK sat in second or third place in all three 2024 elections.
In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the biggest gainer was Nigel Farage's party, increasing their share of the vote by 14.4 per cent.
The Conservatives lost 17.7 per cent of their share, losing the seat to Labour despite Keir Starmer's party decreasing their vote share.
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner 2024 General Election result:
- David Timothy Simmonds - Conservative - 21,366
- Tony Gill - Labour Party- 13,785
- Ian Price - Reform UK- 4,671
Hayes and Harlington 2024 General Election result:
- John Martin McDonnell - Labour Party - 20,405
- Dylan Anton Thomas - Conservative - 8,374
- Francoise Thompson - Reform UK - 4,114
Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2024 General Election result:
- Danny Beales - Labour - 16,599
- Steve Tuckwell - Conservative - 16,012
- Tim Wheeler - Reform UK - 6,610
Popularity for Reform is lower in London than the rest of the UK
GETTY
Sutton
Sutton is divided into two Parliamentary seats - Sutton & Cheam and Carshalton & Wallington - both won by the Lib Dems in 2024.
The previously Conservative-held constituency of Sutton & Cheam in south London saw the Tories fall 21.1 per cent, with Reform profiting the most with a 12.2 per cent rise.
The marginal seat has frequently flipped between electing Conservative and Liberal/Liberal Democrat candidates since 1970, but now could face the turquoise tidal wave.
An estimated 51.28 per cent of local adults voting in the EU membership referendum chose to leave the European Union instead of to remain.
Carshalton & Wallington was also a yellow wash, bringing in just shy of double the second-place result.
Sutton & Cheam 2024 General Election result:
- Luke Taylor - Liberal Democrat - 17,576
- Tom Drummond - Conservatives - 13,775
- Chrishni Reshekaron - Labour - 8,430
- Ryan Powell - Reform UK - 5,787
Carshalton & Wallington 2024 General Election result:
- Bobby Dean - Liberal Democrats - 20,126
- Elliot Colburn - Conservatives - 12,221
- Hersh Thaker - Labour Party - 6,108
- Elizabeth Cooper - Reform UK - 5,941
Bexley
Farage's reform will be eyeing up a seat on the Thames despite coming third both parliamentary elections in Bexleyheath & Crayford and Old Bexley & Sidcup.
Tom Bright gained nearly a quarter of the vote in Bexleyheath & Crayford, rivalling both the Labour and Conservative candidates.
Brexiteers showed their support for UKIP in 2015, handing over 20 per cent to the Eurosceptic party.
Over in Old Bexley and Sidcup, there was slightly more to celebrate with Reform UK passing the 10,000 milestone.
Bexleyheath & Crayford 2024 General Election result:
- Daniel Francis - Labour - 15,717
- Mark Brooks - Conservative - 13,603
- Tom Bright - Reform - 9,861
Old Bexley & Sidcup 2024 General Election result:
- Louie Thomas French - Conservative - 17,910
- Edward John Charles Jones - Labour - 14,362
- Maxine Patricia Fothergill - Reform UK - 10,384
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