Top pollster reveals ‘missing piece’ from Starmer’s speech that leaves PM in hot water
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Scarlett Maguire, who works as the director of polling company JL Partners, sat down with the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change to give her immediate response to Sir Keir Starmer’s speech
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour conference speech was missing a key piece which means the Prime Minister is unlikely to turn around his recent drop in support with the British public, a top pollster has claimed.
JL Partners’ director Scarlett Maguire shared her thoughts at a fringe event hosted by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change last night.
Maguire opened by discussing Starmer’s post-election "precipitous" fall in the opinion polls, adding: “There have been a slew of polls out over the weekend, none of which have provided the Labour Party with much optimism, or rather every one of which has provided something for them to be potentially worried about.”
However, the polling expert then turned her attention to the Prime Minister’s speech and highlighted the “missing” piece.
She said: “What we were missing from Keir Starmer’s speech today and from Rachel Reeves’ speech yesterday was more detail.
“It’s not that people want to be bored with policy detail. They also don’t want announcements that they don’t think politicians will follow through.
“Labour has been really good at diagnosing the problem. They are in sync with the British public that Britain is broken, that the Tories were in it for themselves.
“However, Starmer needs to show that he doesn’t think Britain is too broken to fix and he needs to show a plan on how to fix that. I think that’s still the piece that’s missing.”
Maguire, who argued Labour had plenty of time to turn the situation around, added: “There’s no effective opposition and they’re only three months in, so they definitely have time to turn it around.
“But part of what they need to do to turn it around is set out a more specific plan for how it’s going to get better.”
The Prime Minister did not put much meat on the bone during his conference speech, instead only announcing plans to place GB Energy in Aberdeen.
Polling conducted by More in Common revealed Labour’s has suffered a totemic dip in support since winning a landslide victory in the 2024 General Election less than three-months ago.
A More in Common survey revealed Labour’s lead has been cut to just four-points, with another revealing Britons already believe Starmer will only serve one term in No10.
However, Maguire’s assessment was not all doom and gloom for the Labour leader.
Scarlett Maguire attending the Tony Blair Institute's event
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“People were giving them quite a lot of benefit of the doubt on the question of clothing donations,” she said.
“They did think it was very different from some of the sleaze allegations that you saw with the Conservative Party.”
Starmer was named as the MP who received the most amount in gifts since 2019, with £107,000 ensuring he benefited two and half times more than any other MP.
The Prime Minister defended £20,000 in donations towards accommodation from Lord Alli, insisting his son needed somewhere "peaceful" to study.
He told the BBC: My boy, 16, was in the middle of his GCSEs. I made him a promise, a promise that he would be able to get to his school, do his exams, without being disturbed.
“We have lots of journalists outside our house where we live and I’m not complaining about that, that’s fine. But if you’re a 16-year-old trying to do your GCSEs and it’s your one chance in life...
“I promised him we would move somewhere, get out of the house and go somewhere where he could be peacefully studying. Somebody then offered me accommodation where we could do that. I took that up and it was the right thing to do.”
Maguire also revealed the Prime Minister’s response to recent riots across England and Northern Ireland was very popular with voters.
She suggested the moment was Starmer’s best since he entered Downing Street following the 2024 General Election.
Around 29 anti-immigration demonstrations and riots took place across 27 towns and cities in the UK.
Unrest included attacks against local mosques and hotels housing asylum seekers.
After the Prime Minister launched a major crackdown, the National Police Chiefs' Council confirmed 1,280 people had been arrested for their involvement, with 796 charged.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer
PADuring his speech, Starmer doubled-down on the rhetoric about rioters, accusing them of “violent thuggery”.
He said: “Whatever anyone thinks about immigration, I will never accept the argument made not just by the usual suspects, but by people who should have known better, who said that millions of people concerned about immigration are one and the same thing as the people who smashed up businesses.
“Who targeted mosques, attempted to burn refugees, scrawled racist graffiti over walls. Nazi salutes at the cenotaph. Attacked NHS nurses. And told people, with different coloured skin, people who contribute here, people who grew up here, that they should ‘go home’.
“People concerned about immigration were not doing that because they understand that this country, this democratic country, is built on the rule of law. The ballot box. The common understanding that we debate our differences. We do not settle them with violent thuggery. And racism is vile.
“So to those who equivocate about this, I simply say – the country sees you and it rejects you. And to those who say that the only way to love your country is to hate your neighbour because they look different, I say not only do we reject you, we know that you will never win.
“Because the British values we stand for, not just the rule of law, but a love for this country and our neighbours, the respect for difference under the same flag, that is stronger than bricks and you know it.
“It’s what you cannot stand about our country – our reasonable, tolerant country – but it is absolutely who we are.”
However, Maguire’s assessment ultimately highlighted the need for Labour to be clearer about why it is making its decisions.
She said: “Keir Starmer was swept to power not necessarily because there was a lot of enthusiasm for the Labour Party or for him but because there was an overwhelming desire for change.
“Whilst Starmer did tell a more effective story about himself today, I think he came across very well, it was rhetorically stronger, I still think that the public will think it is missing some detail.
“I do think it would be helpful if Starmer and Reeves implemented the framing of ‘tough choices today for a better tomorrow’ a few months ago.
“That narrative was completely missing, for example, when they announced the Winter Fuel Payment cut.”