REVEALED: Keir Starmer tipped to lose his seat in shock election upset - but to whom? The plot twist no one saw coming

GB NEWS

|

WATCH: Christopher Hope details Jeremy Corbyn's plans to launch a new left-wing party

James Saunders

By James Saunders


Published: 17/07/2025

- 15:51

The PM could lose a 30 percentage point lead in his own backyard

Sir Keir Starmer is tipped to lose his seat to a more left-leaning candidate at the next general election, according to a new analysis of the polling data.

A survey by Find Out Now just days ago found that Starmer's disgraced predecessor Jeremy Corbyn's new party would draw level support with Labour at a General Election.


Corbyn's upstart hard-left party would take home 15 per cent of the vote - the same as the party of government.

And fresh projections revealed by Nowcast.EU founder Josh Housden has tipped it to steal the PM's seat of Holborn & St Pancras - which borders Corbyn's Islington North home turf.

Keir Starmer

PA

|

Starmer's disgraced predecessor Jeremy Corbyn's new party would draw level with Labour at a General Election

Holborn & St Pancras prediction

X/JOSHHOUSDEN

|

Nowcast.EU founder Josh Housden has tipped Jeremy Corbyn's to steal Holborn & St Pancras from Keir Starmer

Housden's analysis has tipped north London as a battleground for Labour leaders past and present - with Corbyn's candidate set to overturn Starmer's 30 per cent lead to gain a seat in the Commons.

At the General Election last summer, the Prime Minister took home a 48.9 per cent vote share.

Second came South African anti-apartheid activist and close Corbyn ally Andrew Feinstein, with 18.9 per cent, ahead of the Greens, with 10.4 per cent.

Feinstein - an ex-Labour member - has been a firebrand against Keir Starmer's leadership of the party.

The now-PM has toiled since 2020 to wrestle power away from the party's left. As a result, Feinstein has accused him of being "terrible on Gaza".

GBN MEMBERSHIP STORIES ON LABOUR - READ MORE:

Andrew Feinstein and Jeremy Corbyn

GETTY

|

PICTURED: South African anti-apartheid activist Andrew Feinstein protests (to right of Jeremy Corbyn)

The South African also railed against how Starmer represented a continuation of Tory austerity in the lead-up to last summer's election.

Though it remains to be seen whether he would challenge the PM in 2029, Feinstein appeared to endorse Housden's projection today on social media, sharing an image of the seat projection with Starmer grinning in the background.

He also welcomed the original Find Out Now data - and this morning's voting age reforms.

"Very good news for the newly-emerging left party. Bye bye Labour. Bye bye Keir Starmer," he crowed.

Andrew Feinstein

GETTY

|

'Bye bye Labour. Bye bye Keir Starmer,' Feinstein said following the polling

The Prime Minister losing his seat would mark a first in British politics - though former PM Arthur Balfour lost his just one year after resigning the post.

Liz Truss also lost out in 2024 to Labour's Terry Jermy, a little over a year and a half after being turfed out of No10.

Though nationwide, Find Out Now paints a grim picture for both Labour and Jeremy Corbyn's party.

Across the country, Nigel Farage's Reform UK would take home a 34 per cent vote share, ahead of the Tories on 17 per cent.

After the tied Labour-Corbyn duo on 15, the Lib Dems and Greens would see their vote share smashed - taking home just nine and five per cent nationally.

More From GB News