Britain's top elections guru John Curtice has weighed in on whether Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana's new hard-Left party poses a threat to Reform ahead of 2029.
It comes after shock polling of 2,000 UK adults last week found that the former Labour leader outperforms the current one on almost all metrics among Reform voters.
The polling, conducted by Merlin Strategy from 25-27 July, indicates that the 476 respondents who currently intend to vote Reform believe that Corbyn better understands people like them and is braver and more principled than Keir Starmer, who expelled his predecessor from the party last year.
Separate polling has also found that nearly a third of Labour supporters view the formation of a new left-wing political party as a positive development, threatening to split the vote with Starmer's Party (see chart below).
Pollsters also project the party could secure nine per cent of Labour's current support base and achieve parity with Conservative polling figures (see second chart below)
Polling has found that nearly a third of Labour supporters view the formation of a new left-wing political party as a positive development
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But what does this all mean for Reform?
"[They] won't take anything other than breadcrumbs from either the Tories or Reform," elections guru John Curtice told GB News.
In fact, Curtice described the creation of the new left-wing party as "good news" for Nigel Farage's party, adding: "It would mean that their current lead in the polls over Labour would be enhanced. Therefore, their chances of getting an overall majority will be enhanced."
His central argument is that splitting the Left is all to Reform's benefit, particularly as the Tories have also lost votes to Reform.
Curtice also says the polling suggests Starmer's attempt to win over Reform voters by aping Farage has not worked, as they prefer a figure much more to the Left.
It comes after Starmer's shift in rhetoric, particularly with his now-infamous "island of strangers" speech was read by many political analysts as a conscious effort to court the Right.
However, he later executed a major U-turn and apologised for this remark due to left-wing backlash.
Staring a potential mass exodus of support from Keir Starmer, the Corbyn-Sultana’s new party saw the first councillor defect from the Labour Party just weeks after it officially launched.
The new party's founding conference is expected to take place in November
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The new hard-Left movement has generated significant momentum, with a YouGov poll indicating that eighteen per cent of British voters would consider supporting a Corbyn-led left-wing party, despite its lack of formal name or defined policies.
Sultana characterised this figure as "a floor, not a ceiling", expressing ambitions to capture up to twenty-five per cent of the national vote.
Research by More in Common found the party could secure 10 per cent of overall support and lead among voters aged 18 to 24.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
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These projections have led analysts to conclude that the movement could fundamentally alter Britain's traditional two-party parliamentary structure from the left, mirroring Reform's impact from the Right.
Curtice told GB News: "It is potentially another disruptor of the left, but even if the project doesn't take off, Labour already has a challenge from the left", referring to the Green Party."
He highlighted that the upcoming London local elections next year could do significant damage to Labour amongst the Muslim vote because of Corbyn's stance and his appeal to young voters.
Labour's voter support amongst 18-24 year olds was lower in 2024 than back in 2019, with many youth voters switching to alternative political parties.
Sir John Curtice is British political scientist and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde
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Corbyn's nascent movement is not automatically the beneficiary, however, Curtis notes.
He told the People's Channel: "Corbyn clearly has a degree of popularity amongst a certain section of the population. He is a good campaigner despite the 2019 election. But he is not exactly known for his organisational ability. We've already seen how Sultana announced it, and Corbyn said 'no, no, no'.
"The lesson from the Greens and the thing that Reform are now trying to do is create organisation within a party.
"These things take money. Reform is now beginning to get serious money behind them as they're taking money from people who would traditionally back the Tories. They're doing serious damage to the resources of the Tory Party. The question is, where would the money come from for a Coyrbn project?
"They're spending the first few weeks having a grassroots consultation about the name of the party, which strikes me as a little bit of a luxury. This party will need grassroots enthusiasm, but it will need more than that if it's going to convert into something."
Grace Lewis, 22, who sits on Coventry City Council, switched allegiance from Keir Starmer’s party to the more radical left-wing alternative after resigning on Friday.
Lewis said: "Today, after five-and-a-half years, I resigned my Labour Party membership. I will now serve the residents of Westwood on Coventry City Council as an independent.
"The Labour Party promised ‘change’, yet since entering Government, Labour has cut support for disabled people, kept the Tories’ cruel two-child benefit cap and slashed winter fuel payments, driving record numbers into poverty.
"They have joined Reform in targeting minorities, including migrants and trans people, all whilst being active participants in the genocide in Gaza, ramping up spending on war, and arming Israel – criminalising peaceful protesters in the process."