Polling guru Sir John Curtice has given his verdict on whether Rishi Sunak will hold onto his seat as new opinion polls show the Tories face a wipeout worse than 1997.
Curtice, who recently predicted the chances of Labour leading the next Government stood at 99 per cent, warned a number of Tory bigwigs could also face the chop.
While the Prime Minister looks set to retain his constituency, the pollster said the outcome is not yet certain and change.
He told GB News: “Sunak's majority is too big. Sunak should be safe unless things fall away even further.”
The Prime Minister was returned as the MP for Richmond with a 27,210-vote majority in 2019.
Rishi Sunak is facing an electoral headache following the latest MRP poll
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Richmond is one of the safest Tory seats, having voted for a Conservative candidate in every election since 1910.
However, a recent YouGov MRP poll suggested Sunak's 47.2 per cent lead over Labour has been cut to just 12-points.
Two Prime Ministers have come close to losing their seats, with Arthur Balfour being ousted in 1905 just months after resigning as Prime Minister and Ramsey MacDonald being toppled in 1935 shortly after stepping aside as leader of the national Government.
Despite Sunak just about doing enough to hold on in Richmond, a number of seats held by former Tory Prime Ministers appear likely to fall to either Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
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Labour look set to pick up Boris Johnson's former seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Margaret Thatcher's old stomping ground of Finchley.
The Liberal Democrats would also currently land a major blow in the Blue Wall by picking up Theresa May's patch of Maidenhead.
YouGov's MRP survey also suggested eleven Cabinet Ministers currently face the chop.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Science Secretary Michelle Donelan and Illegal Immigration Minister Michael Tomlinson would currently miss out to a Liberal Democrat candidate.
Tony Blair arriving in Downing Street after Election Victory
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Labour would also currently oust Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Attorney General Victoria Prentis, Veterans’ Affairs Minister Johnny Mercer, Chief Whip Simon Hart and Welsh Secretary David TC Davies.
Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan also have the Liberal Democrats breathing down their necks in their leafy southern seats, with both MPs registering single-digit leads in their true blue constituencies.
Addressing the potential challenge to top Tories, Curtice claimed: “Some of the extrapolations suggest we will have more Cabinet Ministers lose their seats than in 1997.”
He added: “But that’s if things remain as they are. I’m not particularly arguing that things will remain as they are. I just don’t think they will get it all the way back to allow the Tories to be in office.”
Rishi Sunak's lead in his own constituency has tumbled in recent months
PAA total of seven Cabinet Ministers from John Major’s Government lost their seats as Tony Blair romped to victory, with Michael Portillo and Malcolm Rifkind among the Tory bigwigs booted out of Westminster.
YouGov’s March MRP poll put Labour on 403 seats, up 201 from the last general election and well-above what is needed to form a majority Government.
The survey would suggest the Tories can expect to be reduced to a rump smaller than after 1997, with just 155 MPs.
Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats could return to mid-2000s highs of 49 MPs as the SNP collapse to just 19 north of the border.
Labour leader Keir Starmer could pick up more than 400 seats
PAHowever, Plaid Cymru and the Greens appear unlikely to see any change, with the progressive parties looking set to return four and one MP respectively.
Despite finishing runner-up in 36 constituencies, YouGov suggests Reform UK is not close to winning a single parliamentary seat.
Ex-Tory MP Lee Anderson is perhaps the populist party's best-bet, with the Ashfield MP trailing Labour by 12 per cent.
The survey also appears to reiterate Curtice’s point about the likelihood of Sir Keir Starmer entering Downing Street.
Sir Ed Davey has celebrated victories in four by-electionsPAHe told GB News: “Labour are currently 20-points ahead of the Tories. The biggest narrowing of the lead to have occurred in a recent full-length Parliament was six-points eight months before the 2010 election.
"The biggest error in the polls recently was eight-points when overestimating Labour in 1992. When taking two extreme events, we’ve still got Labour at plus six. Labour at plus six is probably still enough for Labour to be the largest party.”
Curtice also highlighted how the Tories would struggle even in a hung Parliament, with the Liberal Democrats and SNP desperate to keep the Conservative Party out of power.
The polling guru added: “There’s still plenty for the Tories to fight for. The difference between a hung Parliament and the Labour Party winning with a large overall majority is the difference between chalk and cheese for the Tories, especially given the difficult situation the next administration is going to face and it could become unpopular quite quickly.
"But the point is getting to a point where the Tories can win is just beyond anything that previously has happened in respect to narrowing of the lead and errors in the polls.”
