Tom Harwood: The shine has come off Justin Trudeau, former golden boy of global politics

Justin Trudeau was once the golden boy of global politics. First Elected in 2015, he forced out Conservative Stephen Harper, who had served as Prime Minister for almost a decade.

Since then the shine has come off. From blackface scandal to corruption inquiry. The murky dealings of his SNC-Lavalin scandal made waves in Canada, if not the wider world.

And of course his now famous cringeworthy political correctness - all too often difficult to distinguish from parody. Who could forget him nobly 'correcting' a woman at an event to say 'peoplekind' not 'mankind'.

The green agenda is at the forefront of politics today and Mr. Trudeau as a lamentable record.

Canada's emissions are more than 20% higher than they were in 1990. They have risen during Trudeau's time as Prime Minister. Canada has perhaps the most proficient spin machine, but in reality the worst record in the G7 for this time period. Even the United States has done better. Best of all, of course, was the United Kingdom.

Trudeau lost his majority in 2019, indeed in vote share he was beaten by the Conservatives, just not in seat share.

After repeatedly promising he would not call a snap election in the middle of a pandemic, no doubt sensing a rise in the polls, he abruptly turned course. Keen to snatch a majority, in mid August Trudeau called a snap election.

One month later, today is polling day. Although it is safe to say the campaign has not gone as smoothly as Trudeau perhaps expected.

Despite leading in the polls up until his August election call, almost straight away Trudeau suffered a Theresa May style crash, tumbling behind the Conservatives.

Things have become messier in the last two weeks. The Conservative surge has stalled, and it appears as if Tory voters may be seeping to the right wing populist 'People's Party of Canada'. Polling aggregator Election Maps UK puts the People's Party on 6.3%, with a corresponding recent dip in Conservative support.

There's a very real prospect Justin Trudeau could squeak back in as minority Prime Minister on an even lower share of the vote than he managed to cobble together last time.

So potentially this was all for nothing and the Canadian Parliament will look almost exactly as it did before this mid-pandemic vanity election was called.

Or maybe we're in for a surprise. For our Canadian cousins this will be a close election night.