It could hardly have been a better night for Reform. We swept the Red Wall and the east coast, became the official opposition in Wales, tied for second place in Scotland, won 14 Councils and parked victorious tanks on Kemi’s own lawn.
Nay it speaks volumes that in the mid-term elections with a government and PM so profoundly unpopular, His Majesty’s Opposition could actually lose over 500 seats!
We had by far and away the largest numbers of wins for individual council seats. If last week’s results were carried through to a general election, we would be at least the largest party in the House of Commons and possibly in outright government.
Yet there was one small collection of seats where we came second and not even a close second, which in other circumstances we might confidently have been predicted to win: Great Yarmouth where all nine seats were taken by Rupert Lowe’s Great Yarmouth First party. Inevitably commentators are focussing on “splintering” and “Unite the Right”.
I think we should not read too much into this. Rupert is hugely popular in Great Yarmouth, is a master of electioneering on social media and a determined campaigner.
It was an act of genius to fight under the banner of Great Yarmouth First rather than Restore but that is exactly why I think we should not worry too much.
If Rupert had put up a slate of candidates under his Restore colours, voters would have hesitated. Why waste a vote on a party with no chance?
Better surely to go for Reform which has been dominating the national opinion polls for over a year? That, of course will be the way electors will react in a General Election to a plethora of parties on a ballot sheet.
What Rupert Lowe's act of genius really means for his party and Reform | X
Rupert, recognising that and not being a fool, decided on a local name for local elections and fielded his affiliate party rather than his primary one, in name at least.
But the General Election will not be fought on the interests of Great Yarmouth. People know they are electing a government, not a council and selecting a prospectus for an entire nation, not for one constituency.
They do not need a degree in politics to know that the way to get the approach they want is to vote for the party with the best chance of delivering it. Therefore, I extrapolate precisely nothing from the results in Great Yarmouth.
Those results were not a fluke: they were the result of some very hard work and political nous but they have no resonance outside Great Yarmouth.
In a General Election Restore will almost certainly lose votes as people look for the most likely winner with the right agenda. In very, very marginal seats it could damage Reform but voters, knowing that, will be wary.
People do not vote Restore in the same way that they vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party because those who have that affiliation have it for a reason rather than simply wanting to treat the system with contempt or to dismiss it as a joke.
Therefore come an election, those who want to control our borders, maximise Brexit and defend the country will turn to the party which also wants that but can actually win.