I do have some sympathy for those MPs who are sent over the top into the face of heavy gunfire to defend the indefensible.
My heart went out to those Tories who had to respond to the change of direction by Labour on the contentious issue of the winter fuel allowance (introduced by Gordon Brown) after the Hamilton, Larkhill and Stonehouse by-election on June 5th.
The party's line was that the so-called U-turn was all down to Conservative pressure and had nothing at all to do with a surging Reform UK.
Yeah, right! I have some experience of trying to spin the narrative and still find it hard to forget the Autumn of ‘98 when the most senior Welsh Labour politician, Ron Dabies, lost more than his dignity after an encounter at a gay cruising spot on Clapham Common.
As every Welsh MP was unaccountably unavailable – several claiming to be at choir practice – I was sent out onto the airways, and my brief was to explain that what Ron described as a “moment of madness” could be forgiven as he had been working desperately hard in setting up the nascent Welsh Assembly.
Sadly, and most unfortunately, it was Adam Boulton on Sky who pressed me on this fairly desperate claim and caused me to blurt out that this was a man, just an ordinary man, who had been working his backside off over the past few months.
Bizarrely, several of my comrades from the valleys insisted on buying me drinks in the days that followed. So, as I sat opposite some unfortunate Tory spokesperson on the Martin Daubney programme, I was frankly astonished to hear them claim that it was purely because of an unrelenting and highly effective campaign by Kemi Badenoch that Rachel Reeves had taken the decision on winter fuel allowance.
The argument rested on shaky foundations, the first of which was that the Tories themselves agreed that the payment should go to the needy and not to millionaires, and the second was to be in complete denial about the appalling result for the old blue team at the Hamilton byelection the previous week.
Now the smoke of battle has cleared, only a fool would bet against Nigel Farage - Stephen Pound
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It’s not my job to big up the turquoise team but to make such a strong showing from a standing start, and following on from the absolute mullering they dished out to Labour and the Tories in the May local elections, tells me that Reform is not the cause of a widespread discontent with the status quo in UK politics but very much a symptom and a spearhead of it.
Reform was wrong to try to paint Labour Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar as seeking to promote only the interests of his own ethnic community, and despite the constituency being 99 per cent white, it didn’t go down well on the doorstep.
The endorsement of the Labour candidate by Alex Ferguson and a man revered to almost Godlike status locally – Graham Souness – certainly swung a significant number of votes Labour’s way but when the dust has settled, the smoke of battle cleared and the decks swabbed of blood the fact remains that this was a boost for Reform and a springboard for next year’s Scottish parliamentary elections.
So, with regard to the winter fuel allowance, was it Reform that won it, or did Badenoch come good for once? To deny Nigel and co their part in the policy change is to completely underestimate the impact of last May’s locals on both the “main” parties.
The utterly dismal fourth place for the tragic Tories in the Hamilton by-election is a harbinger of things to come. When even the BBC now states that they need to “reach out” to Reform voters, it is abundantly clear that change is afoot.
Reform could crash and burn, or they could cement their place as the right-wing alternative in our parliamentary democracy.
Not for the first time, I have to say – possibly through gritted teeth – that I won’t bet against Nigel.
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