Labour certainly hasn’t made a great start to the Gorton and Denton by-election campaign, with the row over Andy Burnham being blocked from running for Labour.
And whilst Goodwin’s selection as the Reform UK candidate for the by-election has generated headlines, the idea that he is a “shoo-in” simply doesn’t align with the political realities of the constituency or the dynamics of the contest.
The seat’s long-standing voting patterns, the strength of Labour’s local presence, and the broader context of Reform UK’s electoral performance all point to a far more competitive contest than some suggest.
Labour’s deep roots in the constituency extend beyond vote totals. The party has long-established networks of councillors and activists who maintain year-round visibility.
These local structures matter enormously in by-elections, where turnout is always lower, and ground campaigning can be decisive.
Goodwin, despite emphasising his personal ties to Greater Manchester (basically living there as a student), remains an experienced newcomer to electoral politics.
And such candidates have a history of being brutally exposed and brought down by the intense spotlight of a by-election. And Reform UK’s campaign start has rightly been criticised for a lack of local knowledge and roots, after Lee Anderson appeared to be posting pictures in the “wrong constituency”.
Reform UK has attracted favourable media coverage for its polling performance over the last year, but its lead by historic standards is certainly not strong midterm, and recent polls have shown its support falling and put it as low as 24 per cent, just five per cent ahead of Labour.
There is all to play for. Andy Burnham being blocked from standing as Labour’s candidate might weaken Labour’s position.
But do not underestimate how a Burnham candidacy could have been a drag on the party’s chances once the election got going, being presented by opponents as wanting to be Gorton and Denton’s MP as a vehicle for his leadership ambitions to the exclusion of the interests of local constituents.
Matt Goodwin's Reform turn will collide with political reality as race goes down to the wire - Bill Rammell
|Getty Images
Labour needs to select a strong local candidate with real roots in the area, which it will do this week. Real roots and a track record of fighting for Gorton and Denton, in contrast to media pundit Matt Goodwin.
And Goodwin has a lot of political baggage, which Labour can expose in the by-election. He was accused of suggesting people from minority ethnic backgrounds are not necessarily British, even if they were born in the UK.
That is not the view of the vast majority of people. He is a former Tory. And in a seat where most people have a deep loathing for the Tory Party, that can be toxic.
He was an adviser to the Conservative Party and in the 2022 Conservative Party leadership election supported Kemi Badenoch, referring to her as "one of the most interesting Conservatives in British politics for a very long time". Really? I think that view will go down like a bag of sick in Gorton and Denton.
With the number of Tory defections to Reform, they really are becoming the Tory Party 2.0. For a party wanting to present itself falsely as a real break from the past, that should be meticulously exposed by Labour in this by-election.
And tactical voting against Reform could really spell trouble for Matt Goodwin. Never forget that for every voter Farage attracts, he repels two others.
In the Caerphilly, Runcorn and Helsby by-elections in the last year, there was significant anti-Reform tactical voting. A recent poll for Gorton and Denton puts Reform and Labour virtually neck and neck, with the Greens a strong third.
Labour has to present itself locally as the only party to stop Reform, to capture voters who may not currently be enthused by the Government, but who don’t want a Reform MP.
Goodwin enters this by-election with media attention and national backing from Reform UK. But none of this guarantees victory.
Certainly, Labour needs to get its candidate and campaign together. But my hunch is that the result will go down to the wire, and Matt Goodwin and Reform won’t win.
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