Keir Starmer’s migrant deal could expose the evil racket but it won't change the numbers - Nigel Nelson

Andrew Pierce hits out at Emmanuel Macron and King Charles for using 'irregular migration'
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Nigel Nelson

By Nigel Nelson


Published: 09/07/2025

- 12:21

Updated: 09/07/2025

- 13:32

Isn't that a little better than the appalling situation we have now?

i'm all in favour of as much official data as I can eat for breakfast, lunch and dinner. But I approach these mealtimes with caution, recognising that figures never tell the full story.

Politicians use them selectively. Keir Starmer can have some numbers in front of him showing the economy is booming. Kemi Badenoch can have another lot to show it's faltering.


Both sets of figures are right. It just depends on which ones they choose.

I once had a bit of a barney with Andy Burnham when he was Health Secretary. He produced statistics which showed that A&E departments were meeting his target of patients waiting no longer than four hours more than 90 per cent of the time.

This was true. But then I discovered that some NHS staff were moving patients out of A&E to a different part of the hospital before the deadline was up. That allowed them to tick Andy's box, but it didn't change anything for patients. They were still sick or in pain and untreated.

Emmanuel Macron (left), Keir Starmer (right)

Keir Starmer’s migrant deal could dent the evil racket but it won't change the numbers - Nigel Nelson

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GPs could reduce hospital waiting lists by simply not putting patients on them until there is a slot for them to be seen. That wouldn't change their suffering in the meantime.

Margaret Thatcher was able to massage unemployment figures by reclassifying people out of work as something else. That didn't mean they had a job.

Mark Twain said there are lies, damned lies and statistics. I wouldn't go quite that far. I'm just saying that it is wise to be cautious about using them in isolation.

Which is what I was when GB News presenter Martin Daubney told viewers and listeners that the DWP planned to publish figures to show the nationalities of Universal Credit claimants.

I'm fine with that, provided the whole picture is painted by putting them side by side with other figures. Such as those available from the likes of Oxford Economics, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Migration Observatory and HMRC.

The Centre for Migration Control produced its own stats based on census data, which showed a benefits league table putting Congolese migrants at the top, Iraqis in second place, followed by Afghans. Algerians, Eritreans and Syrians.

Let's look at Iraqis, as there are up to 93,000 of them living in Britain. According to the Migration Control Centre, around 400 in 1,000 are benefit claimants compared to 100 in 1,000 native-born Brits.

You may well be outraged by that. And it is true that an Iraqi refugee is only likely to become a net positive to the economy after they have been here two or three years.

But when you look at the skilled Iraqi workforce and average it out, they are contributing £16,500 a year to this country compared to £800 for a British-born worker.

Taken over a lifetime, the average non-EU migrant makes a net contribution to Britain of £28,000 while an EU migrant is in credit to the tune of £78,000. The average Brit just about breaks even.

That's because the UK has not had to pay for a migrant's education. They are usually younger, so they make less use of the NHS and don't claim pensions.

That's not to say we should have unlimited migration. Of course, we shouldn't. It's just when you see all the figures in the round that you get a fuller picture.

Assuming Keir Starmer gets his one in, one out deal with Emmanuel Macron across the line, it won't make any difference to the numbers coming and going, so stats are useless.

But the bigger story is that it might stop some of them from paying smuggling gangs to cross the Channel if they are likely to be granted asylum using a safe route to get here.

And if that puts a dent in this evil racket, isn't that a little better than the appalling situation we have now?