The whole dynamic of Britain’s stance on the war in the Middle East changed dramatically as RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus was targeted by a drone strike overnight.
Up until now, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer had shown a marked reluctance to get the UK involved in the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
Infamously, he had denied US forces the option of using RAF Fairford in England and the joint US/UK base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean for their aerial assault.
That position has changed. The drone attack on a British Sovereign Base Area (SBA) is a direct attack on British interests, and there can be only one answer to this: the UK must now join the bourgeoning coalition of the USA, Israel, and multiple Gulf states to protect its interests.
Akrotiri is one of two SBAs which Britain has on Cyprus, the other one further east being Dhekelia. Both are of strategic importance.
Dhekelia hosts the hush-hush joint US/UK electronic listening station at Ayios Nikolaos, while Akrotiri has the important RAF base and airfield.
There can be only one response to the hit on the RAF base in Cyprus. Get on with it - Lt Col Stuart Crawford
|Getty Images
Both are within striking distance of ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones from Iran or its proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon being perhaps the most likely potential aggressor.
And defences against such attacks are limited at best, with a small detachment of British ground-based air defences in place, but nothing whatsoever to counter ballistic missiles.
So, short of stationing one of the Royal Navy’s T45 destroyers, which have a decidedly limited anti-ballistic missile capability, off the coast of Cyprus to protect the bases, Britain will have to rely on the Americans to defend against the aerial threats if they are willing and able to assist.
And of the RN’s six T45 destroyers, only one is operational at the present time, a searing indictment of the underfunding of Britain’s armed forces over the past decades.
The British PM’s stance has already flip-flopped once in the short duration of the conflict, from non-participation to joining in on defensive operations.
In the latter case, an RAF Typhoon fighter from Cyprus shot down a drone heading for Qatar just a few hours ago. Now he will need to modify his position once again and join in actions directly against the Iranian regime.
As one retired RAF Air Marshal stated earlier this morning, offensive counter air (OCA) – attacking the enemy’s air capabilities before they have the chance to attack you – is an essentially defensive act in the first place, which may help Starmer get over his lawyerly reluctance to get involved in proactive military action.
While such a change of heart will no doubt be seized upon by his domestic political opponents as yet another U-turn, we might repeat the quote often attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?” The facts here have most definitely changed, and Starmer will surely have to change his mind. Time to get on with it.