We are now well into the second week of the US/Israel/Iran war in the Middle East, and there does not appear to be an end in sight. Nobody really knows how the US President sees the endgame, not even Trump himself, perhaps.
His outbursts on Truth Social and to assorted correspondents have been typically ambivalent and contradictory. One day, he says the war “is very complete, very much”, the next says “We could call it a tremendous success right now. Or we could go further. And we’re going to go further”.
Let’s try to work out where we are at the moment. Iran has been severely damaged by the US/Israeli aerial onslaught. Its political leaders have been killed or incapacitated, its air defences rendered ineffective, its missile arsenal degraded, and its navy has more or less ceased to exist. It has been severely wounded.
And yet Iran has not yet been defeated. Its response to its aggressors and their allies has been robust and has surprised many observers with its fierceness.
Tehran has launched barrages of ballistic missiles at armed drones at Israel, US military bases in the region, and at the infrastructure and economic interests of the Gulf states.
Despite the sophisticated, multi-layered defences of its enemies, quite a few of the missiles have got through and caused significant damage.
On top of this, the threat to commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz has reduced traffic to a trickle and sent oil prices soaring around the world.
Donald Trump is staring down the barrel of his worst-case scenario on Iran - Lt Col Stuart Crawford | Getty Images
So, what happens next? How will the US coalition of states finally suppress Tehran to stop it from lashing out at all and sundry? There are no easy answers here.
There is a limit to what can be achieved by aerial bombardment alone. Despite the skies over Iran being essentially a threat-free zone for US and Israeli aircraft, there is no guarantee that Tehran can be forced to capitulate, especially with the IRGC still in control.
If there’s one thing that Trump wants to avoid, it is committing US ground troops to the fray, but there may be no avoiding it if he wants to bring the conflict to a speedy end.
If he is seriously considering ensuring safe passage for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, or indeed seizing Kharg Island, the export point for most of Iran’s oil, then it may be necessary.
Meanwhile, Putin has been unenthusiastic in supporting his main ally in the Middle East, Tehran. No doubt he is pleased that the world has been distracted from his assault on Ukraine, and anything that weakens the USA and its allies is in Russia’s favour. I fear the war has some way to run before it’s over.
We need to hope that Trump won’t just declare victory at some convenient point (to him), pack up, and go home, leaving others to clear up his mess.
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