What happens next for Downing Street after Sue Gray report?

Sue Gray’s report of lockdown-breaking gatherings at Downing Street was, in her own words, “extremely limited”.

With the police now involved in investigating gatherings on eight separate dates, she has been unable to lay out the full facts that she has uncovered over the course of her own investigation.

But she has reached some general conclusions about both the gatherings and the wider culture at Downing Street under Boris Johnson that are unlikely to relieve much of the pressure on the Prime Minister that has built up over the past month.

Those conclusions, and what they might mean, are discussed below.

– What does the report say about whether Downing Street staff broke the law?

Sue Gray was clear early on in her report that she was not making a judgment on whether any crimes had been committed, saying this was “properly a matter for law enforcement”.

But her general conclusions suggest that she at least feels that this is likely.

As well as describing some of the behaviour during the gatherings as “difficult to justify”, she concludes that some of the gatherings themselves represented “a serious failure to observe…the standards expected of the entire British population at the time”.

Given those standards were largely contained in the regulations, this is as close as Ms Gray was ever likely to come to concluding that the parties broke the law.

She also finds that some gatherings “should not have been allowed to take place”, although whether this was because they were illegal or because they contravened official guidance is not spelled out.

– What has Sue Gray said about the culture in Downing Street?

The report, although brief, contains stinging criticism of the culture at Number 10. In her general findings, Ms Gray states: “The excessive consumption of alcohol is not appropriate in a professional workplace at any time.”

The conclusion follows allegations of frequent, excessive drinking by Downing Street staff to the extent where a wine fridge was purchased and staff were dispatched to local supermarkets to fill a suitcase with wine.

That looks like it is set to change, with Ms Gray recommending a “clear and robust policy” covering the consumption of alcohol in Government departments.

But she raises other concerns regarding the culture in Downing Street as well.

She criticises “failures of leadership and judgment by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office” and says gatherings in the Number 10 garden occurred “without clear authorisation or oversight”.

Even these limited comments will provide ammunition for critics of the Government who have claimed Mr Johnson lacks a strong grip on Downing Street.

Finally, Ms Gray found that some staff who wanted to raise concerns about the parties “at times felt unable to do so”.

The reasons for this are also unclear, but it does suggest a culture where concerns were not just ignored, as previously suggested in some media reports, but discouraged.

– What does this mean for Martin Reynolds?

Martin Reynolds, the Prime Minister’s principle private secretary, found himself at the centre of the partygate scandal with the publication of an email he sent inviting staff to a “bring your own booze” event in the garden of Number 10 in May 2020.

The leaked email led to speculation that Mr Reynolds could face the sack as a scapegoat, but he received Mr Johnson’s backing and remains in post.

However, Ms Gray’s report appears to recommend that Mr Reynold’s responsibilities be pared back as the increase in the number of staff working at Number 10 had led to “fragmented and complicated” leadership structures and a “blurring of lines of accountability”.

The report states: “Too much responsibility and expectation is placed on the senior official whose principal function is the direct support of the Prime Minister.

“This should be addressed as a matter of priority.”

That senior official is understood to be Mr Reynolds and the finding appears to be that he was not solely to blame but was being asked to take on too much responsibility.

In response to this finding, Mr Johnson announced an overhaul of Downing Street and the Cabinet Office to “sort out” the Government’s leadership structures, creating an “Office of the Prime Minister”.

This includes the recreation of the role of Downing Street permanent secretary, a job previously held by Simon Case between May and September 2020, a period during which two parties now under investigation by the Metropolitan Police are alleged to have taken place.

Mr Johnson has also promised a review of the civil service and special adviser codes of conduct and ensure they are properly enforced, although it is not clear what changes could be made beyond the policy on workplace drinking recommended by Ms Gray.

– What does it mean for the Prime Minister?

The Gray report adds little in the way of new facts to the Partygate scandal, thanks to the Metropolitan Police’s request to censor information relating to the 12 gatherings that it is now investigating.

It also avoids directly criticising the Prime Minister himself, which will provide Mr Johnson with a small amount of insulation from further attacks and allows him to maintain his position that he believed the events he attended were within the rules.

That should allow him to carry on, at least until the police investigation is concluded and the full version of Ms Gray’s report is published, although whether that will happen is still uncertain.

But there is enough criticism in the report to provide decent attack lines for his opponents, including findings that there were “failures of leadership” and behaviour that was “difficult to justify” or did not meet “the high standards expected of those working at the heart of Government” and the wider population.

It will also do little to dispel claims that Mr Johnson’s Downing Street operation is chaotic, which may not be a significant issue for voters but could cause disquiet among Conservative MPs.