New year, same auld problems.
Despite the promise to 'smash the gangs', the evidence shows that the people smugglers are alive and well and thriving. Judging by the thousands of people waiting in the camps over near Calais, it won't be long before we see another Armada taking to the Anglo-French waters, the likes of which would have put even the unflappable Sir Francis Drake into a spin.
The modern-day Commander, embattled Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, faces further humiliation over the issue. Despite reshuffling Home Secretaries, it's clear that the impressively tough Shabana Mahmood isn't going to be able to solve the problem any time soon.
So that leaves the spectre of another year of countless dinghies making the treacherous Channel crossing, with a warm welcome and a cup of hot soup awaiting them at the cuddly Port of Dover.
Ms Mahmood will be hoping that the so-called 'One in one out' deal with France starts to gather pace. However, the maths just doesn’t add up. 41,457 in, 193 out.
It makes grim reading for a plan that was trumpeted as one of the main solutions to the small boats crisis. And then there's the agreement with our Gallic neighbours that their waterborne police use new powers to push the boats back when they are close to French shores.
An agreement that seems to have spluttered to a halt, like a flooded dinghy engine, mainly because the police unions are doing their own version of push back with a warning that the risks are too high.
Which is ironic because the risks of getting on a flimsy small boat and crossing the Channel seem infinitely higher than being stopped a few metres from the beach by a floating Gendarme.
Thousands-strong new year push for Britain to torpedo Keir Starmer's plan as armada awaits
|Getty Images
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage cracked open the New Year by savaging the Government's policy on illegal migration. "Smash the gangs is a complete disaster, the one in one out deal is a farce, and the numbers coming over are huge.
And he added a Trumpian line on the growing fear that some illegal migrants have criminal intentions when they arrive on these shores. "Many of the young men who arrived last year will do us great harm."
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp also sprinkled New Year cheer by telling the Government that pulling out of the European Convention on Human Rights is the only way to deal with illegal migration. Easier said than done, I suspect.
He added: "Labour have confined themselves to cosmetic tweaks, hence only five per cent of arrivals have been removed. There is no deterrent and anyone who crosses the Channel knows they can invoke human rights law and remain indefinitely. Labour lacks the backbone to confront that truth."
For its part, the Government still likes to blame the Tories, after all, the record year for crossings in 2022 was on their watch.
Immigration Minister Mike Tapp told GB News: "We inherited open borders. We've seen recently sweeping changes to the immigration system to make it less attractive to come here, easier to deport and remove people, and of course, counter-terror powers to take on the smuggling gangs. And I'm confident we'll make progress".
Sadly for Mr Tapp and his boss, Ms Mahmood, the facts don't lie. Despite long periods of windy weather, the total for 2025 was 13 per cent higher than the figure for 2024, when 36,816 migrants made the journey, and 41 per cent higher than 2023’s total of 29,437.
In another blow to the Government, for much of 2025, in between the gales, the number of arrivals was running at the highest level since data on Channel crossings was first published in 2018.
The Home Secretary has made populist promises to end the housing of asylum seekers in hotels by 2029 amid mounting pressure over rising costs and a backlash in local communities.
But for the massed ranks of potential migrants gathering near the beaches of Northern France, the strains of Auld Lang Syne floating invitingly over the Channel will prove an irresistible pull. While many of you will be recovering from a New Year hangover, the Government's small boats headache will undoubtedly continue to linger throughout 2026.
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