Keir Starmer's DWP benefit crackdown 'worse than expected' as 340,000 MORE people face 'severest form of poverty'

Labour's proposed welfare cuts will push 340,000 more people in disabled households into severe hardship by 2029/30, significantly worse than the government's own impact assessment predicted.

Research commissioned by the Trussell Trust and carried out by WPI Economics predicts that up to 440,000 people in households with a disabled member could be pushed into severe financial hardship if proposed disability benefit reforms go ahead.

While a planned Universal Credit increase in 2029 would ease the pressure slightly, the number of people at risk of extreme hardship would still sit at around 340,000, according to the findings.

That's significantly higher than the Government’s own impact assessment, which had forecast 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, falling into relative poverty after housing costs.

The welfare reforms include tightening eligibility criteria for Personal Independence Payment (PIP), the main disability benefit in England, and cutting the sickness-related element of Universal Credit.

The proposals also delay access to the health element of UC for those aged 22 and over, with savings intended for reinvestment in youth employment and training programmes.

But the Trussell Trust’s figures focus not just on poverty thresholds, but the kind of hardship that leaves people turning to food banks and emergency support to get by.

The package aims to reduce the number of working-age people claiming sickness benefits, with the government targeting £5bn in annual savings by the decade's end. These measures form part of Labour's broader strategy to reform employment support systems.

The reforms have sparked significant concern among Labour MPs, with more than 150 expressing opposition last month. Parliamentary private secretaries and government ministers were reportedly considering resignation if the proposals weren't watered down.

Trussell's calculations are based on the Social Metrics Commission's definition of severe hardship, which identifies people living more than 25 per cent below the poverty line.

This captures both those currently relying on food banks and those at high risk of needing such support.

Helen Barnard, director of policy at Trussell, explained that their analysis presents "a worse picture than previously thought, because we have looked at how many people are going to be pulled, not just into overall poverty but into the severest form of hardship".

She emphasised: "That's important because the lower your income, the worse your hardship, the more damage it does. So the more likely you are to not be able to afford essentials like food, the worse the impact on your health, on your prospects."

Barnard warned that whilst Trussell supports government efforts to reform employment support, "these proposed cuts will utterly undermine this goal".

She added: "Slashing support will damage people's health and reduce their ability to engage in training and work."

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has backed Trussell's position, stating: "This analysis shows they are likely to create more deep poverty and hardship than even the bleak forecast from the Government's own limited assessments."

Over 100 MPs, primarily those elected in 2024, signed a letter to the chief whip stating they cannot support the proposals in their current form.

A separate letter from around 40 MPs was sent to Sir Keir Starmer days earlier, warning against proceeding with the full changes.

A Government spokesperson responded: "This Government is determined to change people's lives for the better, helping them out of poverty and tackling the unacceptable rise in food bank dependence in recent years."