'Its going to be a bloodbath!' Inside the Tories' frantic fight to avoid a local election massacre

What are the polls saying? 

For months, the Tories have lagged more than 20 points behind Labour, with some predicting they could see a general election landslide defeat greater than that suffered by John Major in 1997.

A YouGov poll from April 2 and 3 put the Conservative Party 23 points behind Labour, at 20 per cent support. Labour was on 43 per cent. Meanwhile, Reform UK reached their highest ever figure of 16 per cent. The Lib Dems and Greens are both on 8 per cent.

Local election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher estimate current polling will mean the Conservative Party could lose half of its 1,000 council seats up for election.

The Reform effect 

Reform UK is increasingly chipping away at the Tories' vote share and has long made it known that its mission is to target the Tories. The fledgling party might even be lethal for the Tories come polling day at a general election.

While there are doubts whether Reform will be able to secure any seats of its own, it has long been accepted that it will contribute to the destruction of the Tories - and will hand Labour an even bigger majority than they would otherwise get.

MRP Polling published by YouGov earlier this month suggested that Reform UK could cost the Conservative Party 41 of their seats at the general election. To make matters worse, six of those are held by cabinet ministers. It's here that Reform's real bite lies.

With Reform UK contesting every seat, the Tories are expected to lose a total of 11 Cabinet ministers.

But local elections may well tell a different story.

Crucially, this YouGov polling showed that if Tice's Party ducked out of the race, the number of Cabinet ministers lost would drop to five - and the Tories could cling on to an extra 41 seats. Polling hasn't been conducted to see how this would translate at the locals.

But crucially, Reform is planning to contest just 16 per cent of wards.

Polling guru Sir John Curtice told GB News that this is likely to work in the Tories' favour, given that voters in 84 per cent of wards would not have the option of voting for a Reform candidate. He said it could allow the Tories to avoid their worst-case scenario.

Asked how well Reform could perform at the election, given how limited their candidate selection is, Curtice said: "I think the crucial question is to what extent will it help the Tories avoid some of the worst forecasts.

"They’re still a lot more present than they were last year, their polling is stronger. And they're now a major source of defection from those considering voting Tory.

"So the fascinating thing is, are those polled who say they’ll vote Reform going to go back to voting Tory if there is no Reform candidate on the ballot paper."

'It's going to be a bloodbath' 

The mood inside the Tory Party is bleak, to say the least.

Morale is already low. And while the party is braced for a bad night at the polls, there is a general sense that if the predictions come true, it will only serve to knock morale even lower - and seal the feeling that this year's general election will be doomsday for the Tory Party.

One Tory insider with bleak expectations for the locals told GB News: "It's going to be a bloodbath. And there's a good chance that Rishi will be defenestrated - especially if the mayoral elections go wrong."

He explained: "There is already huge discontent in the party, so many MPs have already given up.

"A bad night at the locals will just be a hard and fast sign of what's to come at a general [election]."

One MP fighting for his seat at the general election told GB News he's certain it will be a "depressing" night, but said, "expectations are so low that there are unlikely to be any nasty surprises".

The 'worst case scenario'

There is a lot of talk about the "worst case scenario" on polling night - but what does that actually look like?

Curtice said there are a number of factors to judge the results on.

The Conservative Party could lose half of the 1,000 council seats they are defending, he said, adding that a "worst case scenario" result could also see them lose up to 10 of the 37 of the Police and Crime Commissioner elections they’re defending.

The pollster also said that losing the West Midlands, where Tory Mayor Andy Street is up for re-election, would count as a "worst-case scenario" outcome.

He said that the chances of Tory mayor Ben Houchen losing his Tees Valley mayoralty are less significant. Houchen won the 2021 mayoral elections with 73 per cent of the vote, meaning his personal appeal is still likely to be intact to some extent in Tees Valley.

But the pollster suggested there is still a chance his majority could be overturned.

"Unless you live and breathe the politics in the local area, you can't be sure", he warned.

He also pointed out that the Tories are at risk of another defeat on May 2 as a result of the Blackpool South by-election. Losing this, Curtice said, would form part of that "worst-case scenario" picture.

Looking ahead to a general election...

When it comes to the threat of Reform, Curtice said that even if they perform well in the wards they contest, this may not translate to a strong performance at the general election.

He said there is a possibility their performance could not "hold up in the heat of the campaign".

Curtice explained: "The Brexit Party came first in the Euro elections in May 2019 and then it all got squashed at the general.

"Of course, Richard Tice is determined not to repeat the mistake Farage made when they decided not to contest Tory seats. But how far they will succeed in maintaining that support in the face of the heat of a general election is yet to be seen."

Given the current polling, it is likely the Tories could face a result that is nothing short of disastrous. But where does that leave the party as it prepares for this year's general election?

One scenario being considered by MPs on the right of the party is yet another change of leadership. A number of MPs have been saying for months that they expect the locals to be a real point of turbulence for the Sunak's grip on power.

One right wing insider told GB News: "When it comes to the PM, the locals are what to keep an eye one. We're all getting frustrated. It could be the final chance to replace him before a general."

Another party source suggested it could be after the local elections that they attempt to get rid of Sunak and replace him with a "caretaker Prime Minister".
Speaking last month, they told GB News there was a "significant number" of MPs who think it would be "cleaner" to put in a a short-term "caretaker" PM.

The insider explained: "They could call an election and have a 100-day campaign. That way they can fight it with fresh leadership and draw a line under the chaos.
"Surely its easier to fight an election with a new prospect for prime minister, rather than an incumbent."

However, many other MPs have dismissed the prospect of another prime minister as absurd, arguing that it would only increase their chances of a landslide defeat at the general election.

But whether Sunak stays or goes, there is a general consensus among Tory councillors that a poor performance at the locals will be the final death knell for the Tories - ahead of what is expected to be an extremely difficult night at the general election.