LISTED: 11 runners and riders to replace Sunak - could Farage ever head up the Tories?

Sunak is even at risk of becoming the first Prime Minister to lose his constituency, with Find Out Now's MRP poll for GB News handing Labour a one-point lead in his home seat of Richmond & Northallerton.

Ex-Prime Minister Arthur Balfour came the closest to getting ousted, having resigned from No10 to become Leader of the Opposition just months before losing his seat in the 1906 General Election.

But with the Conservative Party in such disarray, who is really likely to replace Sunak as Tory leader?

Kemi Badenoch

Age: 44

Bookies' odds: 11/4

Majority: 27,594 in North West Essex (formerly Saffron Walden)

Position: Business Secretary

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: Anti-woke

Kemi Badenoch was regarded as the “new Margaret Thatcher" in the 2022 Tory leadership contest. The Brexit-backing Business Secretary, who was once an ally to Whitehall fixer Michael Gove, was eliminated in the fourth ballot after receiving support from 59 Tory MPs.

Badenoch opened the door to contesting another leadership bid last weekend, telling attendees at a Bloomberg debate: “What terrifies me now is not not becoming leader, it is seeing Labour come in and us surrendering all of the work we’ve done on the economy, on tax, on energy security to them.”

Taking on the brief of Equalities Minister, Badenoch has regularly contributed to the debate on trans rights and was embroiled in a fresh LGBT+ row with former Doctor Who star David Tennant just this week. Born in Wimbledon to Nigerian parents, the anti-woke leadership contender named the Iron Lady and wartime hero Winston Churchill as her political idols.

Adopting a small state agenda, Badenoch threw her weight behind the 2016 Brexit campaign while sitting in the London Assembly. She left City Hall to enter Parliament as the MP for Saffron Walden less than a year later. Badenoch, who is the most popular Cabinet Minister among Tory members, returned to represent constituents from the leafy Essex seat of Saffron Walden with a stonking 27,594 vote majority in 2019.

The latest MRP poll conducted for GB News by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now suggests that the Business Secretary is in a neck-and-neck race with Labour in the redrawn seat of North West Essex. Badenoch's potential candidacy is seen as entrenching the Tories position on Brexit.

"Kemi is good personally for the party in being an unapologetic and proactive Brexiteer," a Tory insider said. However, a Boris Johnson loyalist warned: "She is seen as too much of a Gove apprentice and the party will need a decisive break with control by what Nadine Dorries calls 'The Movement'."

Suella Braverman

Age: 44

Bookies' odds: 17/2

Majority: 26,086 in Fareham & Waterlooville (formerly Fareham)

Position: Ex-Home Secretary

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: European Research Group

Suella Braverman will likely emerge as the right's Tory leadership contender of choice. A GB News fan-favourite, the former Home Secretary has not been too quiet about her ambitions. Announcing her 2022 candidacy while still serving as Johnson’s Attorney General, Braverman was knocked out in the second ballot after winning over just 27 MPs.

The former deputy chair of the European Research Group, who was fervently pro-Brexit, later served as Home Secretary. She resigned after being accused of breaking the ministerial code for sending a Cabinet document using her personal email but later returned to serve under Sunak.

The Prime Minister sacked Braverman last autumn during a Cabinet reshuffle after the firebreand Fareham candidate argued the Metropolitan Police "play favourites" with pro-Palestine protesters. She also controversially described pro-Palestine demonstrations as "hate marches" and continues to position herself as a vocal Conservative supporter of Israel.

The latest Find Out Now MRP poll suggests Fareham & Waterlooville will elect a Reform UK MP, with the populist party obtaining 29 per cent support. Braverman slumped into a close third on 23 per cent. Despite campaigning for a number of key allies, Braverman recently warned Sunak to "own" poor electoral results, urging the Prime Minister to "change course" by swining to the right. She also suggested Nigel Farage should be allowed to join the Tory Party.

However, Tory insiders believe Braverman's refusal to stay on message during the campaign could hamper her ambitions. An ex-Tory MP told GB News: "I reckon it'll be one of the dark horses or a unity candidate versus someone who will go after the right. However, those that haven't been vocally supportive of the campaign will likely suffer. We do like a team player and Suella has been vocally opposing us. James Cleverly and Priti Patel have been much more on message." Braverman had hinted at joining rebels plotting to oust Sunak earlier this year but back-peddled after last month's drubbing in the local elections.

Penny Mordaunt

Age: 51

Bookies' odds: 15/2

Majority: 15,780 in Portsmouth North

Position: Commons Leader

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: Liberal Brexiteer

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt reached stardom after playing a prominent role in King Charles' Coronation last year. Clutching a four-foot sword the Royal Navy reservist, dazzled viewers in her sleek teal midi dress.

However, Mordaunt was thrown into the deep end during the election campaign, locking horns with Labour's Angela Rayner in two seven-way debates. Mordaunt, who positions herself as a liberal Brexiteer, served under David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.

She contested the 2022 Tory leadership race, finishing third after winning over 105 MPs. Mordaunt consistently performed well in grassroots' opinion polls and cemented her position of third most popular Cabinet Minister with Tory members ahead of Sunak's snap election announcement.

Despite her grassroots appeal, Mordaunt is being tipped to lose her Portsmouth North constituency to Labour. Find Out Now's MRP poll put Mordaunt five-points behind Labour, with Reform UK hoovering up 15 per cent of the vote.

There was speculation about Mordaunt's leadership ambitions earlier this year, with the 51-year-old being earmarked as a unity candidate. However, Mordaunt's allies dismissed reports as "nonsense", insisting her rivals were trying to "stir up trouble".

Mordaunt has previously been accused of being too "woke" to lead the Tories over her co-authored book Greater: Britain After The Storm. She also holds pro-trans views and was described by Lord David Frost as "useless".

The Commons Leader responded to recent speculation about her ambitions in the House of Commons. Speaking during Business Questions last month, Mordaunt said: "It’s not going to be Pimm’s with Penny, I’m more of a pints with Penny person.

“But yes, I too have read that I’m to be installed rather like a new boiler into number 10 next week, and I have to say there is as much truth to these stories as there is in Labour’s assurances to its business community that it isn’t actually going to do the things it’s been saying it’s going to do, as it’s promised its union paymasters.

“But let me say again, I support our Prime Minister and I will continue to support him after this weekend and beyond.”

However, an ex-Tory MP told GB News: "I would back Penny Mordaunt for leader if she is re-elected and wishes to stand. She is a fighter, speaks well, and has the stamina to attack Starmer effectively if - as the polls suggest - he becomes Prime Minister."

Grant Shapps

Age: 55

Bookies' odds: 33/1

Majority: 10,955 in Welwyn Hatfield

Position: Defence Secretary

Brexit: Remain

Political leaning: Establishment Tory

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is seen as the stalking horse for Establishment Tories. Shapps, who seemingly held more jobs than ex-Chancellor George Osborne, is tipped to run in his second leadership contest after holding a number of "Schnapps with Shapps" events.

The 55-year-old's previous leadership bid was far from successful, with Shapps withdrawing from the contest before the first ballot. Shapps was reportedly the Tory leadership hopeful making the most overt manoeuvres ahead of the general election, inviting MPs for tea and drinks on a number of occasions.

Shapps, who was once dubbed a "spreadsheet schemer" for his detailed tracking of rebellious MPs disappointed with Liz Truss' turbulent premiership, was keen to throw his weight behind Sunak ahead of his snap election announcement.

Speaking after a poor set of local election results, the Defence Secretary said: “Let him get on with the job." Shapps also directly urged Conservative colleagues against ousting Sunak, adding: "Now is not the time or place."

Shapps political career has seen him hold a number of other key positions, including Tory Party Chairman and Transport Secretary. His copybook was blotted by accusations of editing his Wikipedia and allegedly used the pseudonym Michael Green a year after entering the House of Commons.

Find Out Now's latest MRP poll makes for dire reading for Shapps. The moderate Tory is expected to receive just 23 per cent of the vote in Hatfield Welwyn, with Labour looking set to retake the Hertfordshire constituency for the first time since 2005 on 49 per cent. Despite opinion polls pointing to the end of Shapps' political career, a source close to the Defence Secretary told GB News: “Grant is the grown up in the room. He’s a true Conservative, he’s got a real vision for the country and he will be able to draw support from across the party - both with MPs and members.

“He’s the best media communicator in the party and he would bring energy, new ideas and experience as the party leader. He’s also going to defy the odds to win his seat when some colleagues with bigger majorities may lose. He’s an election winner which the party desperately needs.”

Priti Patel

Age: 52

Bookies' odds: 15/2

Majority: 24,082 in Witham

Position: Ex-Home Secretary

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: Thatcherite Unifier

Ex-Home Secretary Priti Patel is being tipped to run as a "unifying" Conservative leadership candidate. Patel, long-regarded as a Thatcherite hardliner, is understood to have courted both Brexit-backers and One Nation Tories.

The 52-year-old, who was a loyal Johnson supporter, received a boost among Tory MPs following Braverman's tough stint in the Home Office. She is also being tipped to challenge Reform UK and open the door to the return of Johnson.

A top Tory activist told GB News: “She connects and respects the members the most which has been the biggest issue with Rishi and the disrespect shown to the members through the last year or so. Patel would thwart the threat to Reform and is the Thatcher-esque figure that we all need.”

However, Patel does face some criticism for overseeing part of the Channel crossing crisis. Some Tory sources even told GB News that her bark is bigger than her bite. Patel, who is sitting on a majority of 24,082, is known as a longstanding Eurosceptic and economic Thatcherite.

She once headed up the Referendum Party's press office and later defied David Cameron to support Vote Leave in 2016. Patel previously had a close political friendship with Farage but is reportedly unlikely to let the Brexit supremo return to the Tory fold.

Patel was involved in a scandal during her time as Theresa May's International Development Secretary after breaching the ministerial code by holding unauthorised meetings with Israeli officials. May requested her resignation but she returned to Government following Johnson's 2019 leadership victory.

The ex-Home Secretary appeared to make her clearest pitch for Tory leader last weekend, pushing for a tax-cutting agenda in a piece for The Telegraph. Despite her stonking victory in 2019, Brexit-backing constituents in Witham could soon elect a Labour MP. Find Out Now's latest MRP poll gave Patel 33 per cent of the vote, two per cent behind her Labour challenger.

Tom Tugendhat

Age: 50

Bookies' odds: 5/1

Majority: 26,941 in Tonbridge (formerly Tonbridge & Malling)

Position: Security Minister

Brexit: Remain

Political leaning: One Nation Tory

Security Minister Tom Tugendhat refused to pull any punches when he stood for Tory leader in 2022. He warned the Conservative Party faced a "1997-style wipeout" and threw Sunak under the bus by letting slip a private conversation about National Insurance.

Tugendhat, who was eliminated in the third ballot, performed well in debates and won over 31 MPs. He is widely expected to run again and will stand as the candidate representing the Tories' moderate flank. He was a vocal critic of Johnson and will likely attract wider support from the Conservative Party's so-called Blue Wall.

The former soldier, who supported Remain, now opposes rejoining the Single Market and declared he intended to "make Brexit work". Tugendhat is sitting pretty on a 26,941-vote majority. Find Out Now's latest MRP poll indicated he will likely return to the House of Commons after July 4.

The survey handed the 50-year-old an eight point lead over his Green Party challenger in his redrawn Kent seat. A well-connected One Nation Tory source told GB News: "Tom is pragmatic on economics and strong on national security. He brings stability and is uncontroversial. It will certainly shore up support in the Blue Wall."

James Cleverly

Age: 54

Bookies' odds: 9/1

Majority: 24,673 in Braintree

Position: Home Secretary

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: Moderate Right

Home Secretary James Cleverly has refused to rule out running for Tory leader after polls close on July 4. Speaking last weekend, the 54-year-old said: "We want to make sure that if we do have to hold the Labour Party to account we'll do so." GB News understands that Cleverly has not yet made up his mind as his Essex seat remains on a knife-edge and victory in a leadership contest would still keep him camped in Opposition.

A source close to Cleverly told GB News: "He's focused on the election, winning Braintree and then being Home Secretary." The last ConservativeHome League table handed Cleverly a net approval rating marginally in the red. Following his demotion from Foreign Secretary to the Home Office, Cleverly also oversaw the passage of the Government's much-scrutinised Rwanda policy.

The Royal Artillery reservist was dealt a major blow after Find Out Now's latest MRP poll handed Labour a 10-point lead over Cleverly in Braintree. Cleverly, who loyally served Johnson and supported Brexit, is regarded as a unifying figure.

A Tory source told GB News: "Cleverly is the best option for the party. There's a big question mark over if he goes for it but what he has been doing, much to his credit, is focussing on winning this election and getting as many Conservatives re-elected to Westminster as possible. He's gained a lot of respect for that and clearly understands that the way forward is to bring the party together and focus on change that will genuinely improve people’s lives.”

The Home Secretary briefly ran for the leadership of the Tory Party in 2019 but withdrew to support Johnson. He said at the time: "It is clear that, despite much support, particularly from our party's grassroots, MPs weren't comfortable with such a move and it has become clear that it is highly unlikely that I would progress to be one of the final two candidates."

Robert Jenrick

Age: 42

Bookies' odds: 12/1

Majority: 21,816 in Newark

Position: Ex-Immigration Minister

Brexit: Remain

Political leaning: Reformed Right-Winger

Having supported Remain and served under all Conservative Prime Ministers since David Cameron, Robert Jenrick was long seen as a mealy-mouthed Establishment Tory MP. However, following his resignation as Sunak’s Immigration Minister, Jenrick has pivoted to the right of the party and heaped pressure on No10 over the Channel crossing crisis.

The 42-year-old, who helped run Sunak’s botched leadership bid in the summer of 2022, accused the beleaguered Prime Minister of breaking his word over his Rwanda plan. Jenrick wanted to toughen up the legislation and tabled a number of amendments amid concern about overreach from international courts. Jenrick also joined 37 MPs in abstaining during the Rwanda December vote.

Echoing Cameron’s 2015 pledge earlier this year, Jenrick separately voiced support for capping net migration to the tens of thousands. He later argued it would be “unforgivable” if the Government did not undo the “disastrous” post-Brexit liberalisation of Britain’s borders. Jenrick is widely expected to run to replace Sunak and made a direct pitch earlier this week.

He recently described Johnson as one of the “stars of the Conservative Party” and stressed he agrees with Nigel Farage on many issues. Jenrick “vehemently disagrees” with the Reform UK leader about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, in a direct pitch to Reform UK voters, Jenrick claimed the Tory Party is their “natural home”.

Despite positioning himself on the right, Jenrick continues to pick up Conservative support through his pro-housing agenda. A moderate Tory source said: "He's pitching to build more houses and lower immigration. He's addressing some big issues. He's doing the right-wing pitch but he does sometimes echo similar positions to Tugendhat on the left."

Unfortunately for Jenrick, Find Out Now gave Labour a 12-point lead in Newark, with Reform UK receiving 20 per cent support in the Nottinghamshire constituency. Speaking to GB News in January, Jenrick refused to rule out running for the leadership. He said: “Well, look, I’m not ruling it out. But that’s not my intention here. What I really want to do is make and hopefully win this central argument for the Conservative Party’s future."

Liz Truss

Age: 48

Bookies' odds: 80/1

Majority: 26,195 in South West Norfolk

Position: Former Prime Minister

Brexit: Remain

Political leaning: Popular Conservatism

Voters might have assumed that Liz Truss’ political career was over following her disastrous 2022 mini-budget. Residing in No10 for just 49 days, Truss resigned as Prime Minister after her £45billion package of unfunded tax cuts triggered mass market turmoil.

However, the South West Suffolk MP recently hinted at a return to the upper echelons of the Conservative Party. “I definitely have unfinished business,” the defiant ex-Prime Minister said just two months ago. Sitting on a 26,195 vote majority, Truss likely expects to return to Westminster after July 4.

Despite her hefty majority, recent MRP polls suggest her South West Suffolk constituency is too close to call. Survation’s pessimistic poll predicted a narrow victory for Labour but Find Out Now’s latest survey paints a prettier picture. Truss leads Reform UK by just five points, with the populist party picking up as many as 18 seats.

Despite winning over members in the race against Sunak in the summer of 2022, Truss is unlikely to receive much support. Truss became the least popular Prime Minister in the history of UK polling after her mini-budget and her net approval still sits at -60 per cent.

A source working closely with the inner circles of the Conservative Party told GB News: "It's time for unification, whilst learning and moving on from past mistakes. Liz Truss is the opposite to moving forward, unifying and trying to rebuild the party."

Lord Cameron

Age: 57

Bookies' odds: 14/1

Majority: N/A

Position: Foreign Secretary (formerly Prime Minister)

Brexit: Remain

Political leaning: Establishment Tory

The last peer to serve as Tory leader was fellow Old Etonian Alec Douglas-Home in 1963. Having served as Harold Macmillan’s Foreign Secretary, Douglas-Home was parachuted into the Scottish seat of Kinross & West Perthshire just three weeks after succeeding SuperMac.

Despite no constitutional requirement forcing the Leader of the Opposition to sit in the House of Commons, Lord David Cameron would likely need to switch from red to green benches if he hopes to lead the Conservative Party. Landing a seat, particularly one safe enough to avoid an electoral humiliation, might prove difficult after July 4. The Tory moderniser represented residents in the leafy Cotswolds constituency of Witney from 2001 to 2016.

However, Cameron’s successor Robert Courts was re-selected as the Tory candidate earlier this year and the Liberal Democrats have been eyeing up the seat as part of the centrist party’s Blue Wall offensive. An ex-MP, who was elected in 2015 and is closely aligned with Cameron, told GB News: "There's no chance David will stand."

ConservativeHome’s April Cabinet league table also put his net approval at -7.8 per cent, eighth lowest in the 32-strong list. Lord Cameron, who won a shock majority in 2015, faces an uphill struggle winning over Tory members given his support for the UK remaining a member of the EU.

The 57-year-old used his memoir For The Record to describe Stronger In’s defeat as his “greatest regret”, adding that Tory MPs advocating for Vote Leave “left the truth at home”. Cameron received blowback from Eurosceptic Conservative colleagues after returning to the Cabinet, including Badenoch. The Business Secretary accused Lord Cameron of failing to prepare for Brexit as Prime Minister, arguing: “I think that was the real dereliction of duty.”

Nigel Farage

Age: 60

Bookies' odds: 15/2

Majority: N/A

Position: Reform UK leader (Troublemaker for Tories)

Brexit: Leave

Political leaning: Populist Right

Farage has made no bones about his disdain for the Tory Party. Slamming Sunak over immigration and jostling with Johnson on Ukraine, the Brexit stalwart is contesting his eighth Westminster seat and his odds of entering the House of Commons have never been stronger. Find Out Now's MRP poll suggested Farage will romp to victory with 50 per cent support.

The 60-year-old, who quit the Tories over Maastricht in 1992, is keen to stress that he is not looking to destroy the Conservative Party. Farage instead believes the Tories will destroy themselves. In recent weeks, Farage has teased about mounting a "reverse takeover" of the centre-right. He even hinted at leading a merger party made up of Reform UK and like-minded Tories.

Farage said: "I would be prepared to lead the centre-right in this country." The Brexit supremo separately said: "I think if you ask Tory party members right now they'd vote for me to be leader and not Rishi Sunak."

Despite looking likely to break his electoral hoodoo, most Conservative leadership contenders have ruled out letting the right's court-jester-turned-kingmaker join the Tory fold. Braverman was the only potential hopeful who opted to declare her support for such a move. Speaking ahead of Farage's comments about Ukraine, the former Home Secretary said: "There’s not much difference really between him and many of the policies that we stand for."

A number of other Farage-sympathisers have reportedly stopped short of accepting his re-entry, including Jenrick and Patel. Despite his longstanding efforts to ensure the UK left the EU, Eurosceptic Tories also fear Farage's track record is destructive. A Brexit-backing ex-Cabinet Minister told GB News: "I've known Nigel for many years, the funny thing about him is he just ends up destroying everything he believes in."

However, Tory MPs who like Farage have been even more critical following his comments about the West provoking Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Michael Fabricant, who earlier this month claimed Farage should have been rewarded for his Brexit crusade with a knighthood, is among those sharing social media posts criticisng the Reform UK leader. Despite a spat with Tories over EU and Nato expansionism, a recent survey by Redfield & Wilton revealed that voters would now prefer Farage as Leader of the Opposition than any Conservative hopeful.