Warning desperate Putin could launch nuclear strike 'to cause misery and destruction in recognition of Russian failure to conquer Ukraine'
An expert has warned that Putin could launch a nuclear attack
Reuters
Russian president Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if he thinks defeat is imminent, a think-tank has warned.
Moscow prompted fresh concern over recent days after announcing it would move nuclear missiles into Belarus last week and today completing exercises with its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) systems.
In a research paper for the UK’s foreign policy think tank Chatham House, Russia and Eurasia expert Keir Giles warned there is a “non-zero” chance Putin could conduct a nuclear strike in Ukraine.
He wrote: “A nuclear strike could be ordered if there is no longer any possibility of claiming conventional victory and a powerful destructive attack on Ukraine is perceived as the only means of avoiding admission of a clear defeat.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
Reuters
“The moment at which Putin feels his options are exhausted is likely to be the most significantly dangerous decision point,” he said.
Giles explained that nuclear weapons would have very little military utility on the ground in Ukraine as the frontline stretches hundreds of miles so any strike would not only kill Ukrainians but would also irradiate the land, making it unliveable for Russians.
The expert said as a result, a strike is unlikely to be carried out to achieve military goals but rather a “vindictive response intended simply to cause misery and destruction in Ukraine in recognition of Russian failure to conquer it”.
The paper added that the barriers preventing Russia from launching a nuclear weapon, such as the risk of retaliatory strikes and further nuclear escalation, do not consider the possibility that Putin is unable to make rational decisions.
It said: “The above conditions need to be considered with the caveat that they assume President Putin is able to make a rational choice based on an objective assessment of his and Russia's situation.
“They do not take account of the possibility of Putin being obsessed and/or delusional, or of him simply not receiving a clear or accurate picture from those around him of world events and the progress of his war.
“Neither is it impossible that this problem is exacerbated by Putin's own state of physical or mental health... Factors like these may contribute to the indicators of an increasingly wide disconnect between Putin and reality.”
Giles suggests that in a bid to deter Putin from considering nuclear devices, the US, UK and other Western allies must not buy into Moscow’s threats.
Expert Keir Giles says that in order to deter Putin from considering nuclear devices, the US, UK and other Western allies must not buy into Moscow’s threats
Reuters
“If Russia is allowed to achieve success through nuclear intimidation, this validates the concept of nuclear coercion not only for Moscow but for other aggressive, assertive or rogue states around the world.
“The non-zero chance [of Putin using nuclear weapons] should be reduced still further by reconsidered messaging from the US and its allies regarding the probable outcomes of nuclear use.”
Last week, Putin announced that he intends to instal tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.
Belarus said it had decided to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons in response to Western sanctions.