Five regions where Reform could overcome Labour in Scotland as new polling places Nigel Farage in second

Oliver Partridge
Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:20:33 +0000
Membership

Reform UK is more favourable than Labour in five of eight regions of Scotland, bombshell new polling has revealed.

New data released by Edinburgh-based research agency Diffley Partnership found Nigel Farage's party sits in second behind the behemoth Scottish National Party, which is set to remain the largest party in Holyrood following May’s election.

The survey of more than 1,000 adults across Scotland, conducted by Survation between March 16 and 23, measured constituency and list voting preferences and the favourability of party leaders.

A breakdown of regional data reveals Reform UK received more support from the electorate than Labour in Central Scotland, Highlands and Islands, Mid Scotland and Fife, West Scotland and North East Scotland.

TRENDING

Stories

Videos

Your Say

According to the survey, Reform UK would receive 19 per cent of the constituency vote, projecting a 19-seat return, compared with Labour on 17 per cent support in regional votes, equalling 18 Holyrood seats.

Polling expert George Buchan told GB News: "Scotland represents a particularly difficult challenge for Reform with an electorate who tend to swing further to the left than the rest of the UK.

"Thus, the upcoming Holyrood elections represent a key test for them. If the party can displace Labour as the leading challenge to the SNP in multiple areas, it will show that party has serious prospects at the ballot box and are not just a protest vote in polls.

"On the other side, should Labour finish in third place consistently, pressure will continue to mount on Starmer and those around him.

"The PM and his team will know that they face a particularly tricky period with prices, of fuel in particular, set to soar as a result of events in the Middle East.

"Coming third to reform in Scotland will continue to undermine the PM’s position and bring into focus whether or not he and his team have solutions to the current issues".

In Central Scotland, covering areas of North Lanarkshire, Falkirk, and West Lothian, Reform received 23 per cent compared to Labour's 17 per cent.

Over in the Highlands and Islands region, covering Argyll and Bute, Sutherland and Inverness, Reform received 15 per cent, while Labour scooped a 10 per cent.

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

Labour MP suspended after criticising David Lammy's plans to scrap jury trials

Ed Davey slams Keir Starmer's 'lack of backbone' after Palace announces King's US State Visit

Nigel Farage warns of Channel crossing surge within HOURS as UK-France deal ends: 'A very busy day!'

Meanwhile, in Mid Scotland and Fife, covering Clackmannanshire, Fife, Perth and Kinross, and Stirling, Labour garnered nine per cent, while Reform boasted double the votes with 18 per cent.

In North East Scotland, including major cities Aberdeen and Dundee, Reform's 15 per cent edged out Labour on 10 per cent.

Voters in the areas of Clydebank, Dumbarton, Paisley, Greenock and more in West Scotland were more split, with the parties level pegging at 17 per cent.

The only three regions where Labour polled above Reform were South Scotland, Lothian and Glasgow.

John Curtice, expert pollster, noted how the surge of support for Nigel Farage's party confirms an answer to a lingering question.

He told GB News: "Reform are ahead of Labour by 1 per cent in the UK wide polls, and the key question was would they be able to keep it up north of the border - which seems true.

"There has been no polling in Scotland since the back end of February, and it was to be seen whether fresh polls would reflect general decline of support for Reform.

"But no, this is good news for Reform, and whilst I'm not sure anybody would want to call who would come second, this is good news for the party.

"It's extremely unlikely reform will gain the position of First Minister - but Labour and the Tories are very badly behind".

SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said the poll showed a Holyrood majority was “within touching distance”, batting away any cause for concern over the emergence of Reform voters.

He said: “Not only does an SNP majority unlock independence, it locks Nigel Farage out of power - be in no doubt, without an SNP majority, there is always the potential for a grubby, backroom deal between the Labour Party and Reform.

“There is no room for complacency, but by delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland, a fresh start with independence is there to be won and every single vote counts".

While Reform's battle for Scottish seats is pivotal for the party, recent weeks have seen Nigel Farage and members campaigning across the UK – targeting Wales, the Midlands, and London.

Sir John said:"Wales is evidently a battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform, and areas that have seen delayed county council elections such as Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex are all places Reform did well last year.

"All the council seats are up for grabs – Barnsley and Sunderland, Wakefield.

"London is not going to be the party's best area, as constituents didn’t vote Brexit – bits of outer London maybe, but the bulk of inner London will see the Greens stand a better chance to break Labour."