Keir Starmer braces for Labour wipeout as Angela Rayner set to ‘take advantage’ of Reform surge

Jack Walters
Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:22:03 +0000

Sir Keir Starmer has been left bracing for a Labour wipeout in the upcoming 2026 Local Elections.

Polling guru Lord Hayward, who is also a Tory peer, is predicting a torrid night for the Prime Minister at the ballot box.

The forecast suggests Labour could lose three-in-four seats, with net losses standing at 1,850.

Such a result would prove far more catastrophic than Labour’s haul in the 2025 Local Elections, when Sir Keir’s candidate was defeated in just under two-in-three wards.

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Ex-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is now expected to “take advantage” of Sir Keir’s electoral woes.

“If the HMRC investigation comes back soon, she should be ready to go as soon as possible after the locals,” an ally of Ms Rayner told The Times.

However, Lord Hayward is also forecasting a tough night for the Tories.

Kemi Badenoch is expected to suffer defeat in around 600 wards for a second consecutive year.

The main beneficiaries will be Reform UK and the Green Party, Lord Hayward’s prediction has revealed.

Mr Farage looks poised to hoover up 1,550 seats, with a turquoise tsunami sweeping over councils outside of London.

Meanwhile, Zack Polanski’s Green Party is expected to sweep up a new set of predominantly urban seats with net gains of 500.

However, Ms Rayner is not the only Labour leadership contender angling to push Sir Keir after the 2026 Local Elections.

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting is reportedly courting Labour MPs to support his leadership tilt.

Mr Streeting, who consistently denies plotting against the Prime Minister, is also believed to be the Cabinet's top pick for Sir Keir's successor.

Meanwhile, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham continues to heap pressure on Sir Keir ahead of polling day.

He told Bloomberg: “The politics we’ve pioneered as mayors: place first, not party first — that needs to go national, and so we do need to reform Westminster.

“I can’t remove the kind of feeling that someday I will try and go back. I’m not ruling it out.”

Sir Keir blocked Mr Burnham from standing as Labour's candidate in February's Gorton & Denton by-election.

However, Labour insiders believed Mr Burnham could have helped prevent defeat at the hands of Zack Polanski's Green Party.

The Prime Minister is looking to extend an olive branch to Ms Rayner, indicating he would welcome the former Housing Secretary back into his Cabinet.

Ms Rayner discussed her political future with Sir Keir during a visit to a school in Greater Manchester on April 14.

However, the ex-Deputy Prime Minister is believed to be uncertain about returning to the Cabinet after expressing concerns about the current crisis engulfing No10.

It is understood that Ms Rayner is hopeful that an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs will be closed as soon as this week.

Rumours have also swirled around Westminster that the ex-Housing Secretary wants Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood booted out of the Cabinet if she were to return to the Labour frontbench.