Labour set to lose control of Wales as Keir Starmer braces for historic blowout

Alice Tomlinson
Wed, 15 Apr 2026 17:23:51 +0000

Labour are set to lose control of Wales as Sir Keir Starmer braces for a historic blowout in the upcoming Senedd elections in May.

This would be the first time the party would be out of power since the Welsh Parliament's formation in 1999.

Plaid Cymru is projected to be the most successful party in Wales after May 7, with Labour dropping down two places to third and Reform UK sitting second.

It is anticipated Plaid will win 33 of the 96 seats in the Senedd, followed by Reform UK with 29 and Labour holding on to 17, a poll published by The Telegraph shows.

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Despite chatter of growing popularity for the Greens in Wales, it is forecast they will win just three seats.

Looking at England and how each party will perform in the local council elections, also in May, Labour is on track to suffer its worst results in local election history.

Labour currently controls or is the coalition leader in 83 of the 139 English local authorities.

However, it is forecast they will win just 42 in May, with just under half of these wins being in London.

Due to the Greens success in the capital, it is anticipated they will split the Left vote, but will only take two of London's 32 boroughs, coming second to Labour.

Reform is on course for a breakthrough success, with the most ambitious projections to be winning 69 English councils, having attracted the vote from the Red Wall and Conservatives in the East of England.

A more pessimistic forecast still projects net win of 56 councils, compared to 42 for Labour, 17 to the Liberal Democrats and 15 for the Tories.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, who carried out the poll, said: “One cannot overstate how seismic that result in Wales would be – it is a place that has stayed Labour even in the party’s darkest days.

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"Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and the Greens are all contributing to this, but it is Reform that looks set to be the real story, potentially moving into opposition in Wales and securing England councils across the country.

"People who have been claiming Reform’s momentum has slowed may look very foolish indeed after these local elections take place.”

The polling reveals how the political map across the UK is shifting.

Labour is no longer secure even in urban strongholds that have voted red for generations.

In Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield, support in fragmenting sharply, while across the north west, north east and Yorkshire a strong of councils are projected to see a Reform win.

In Greater Manchester, the position is particularly precarious: Labour now leads the Greens by less than a single percentage point, following Zack Polanski's party's historic win in the Gorton-and-Denton by-election in February.

Further north, in Sunderland, which has been a Labour stronghold since 1974, the party now trails Reform by 10 points, with every council seat up for grabs this year.

Barnsley, a Red-held council for half a century, is also forecast to flip, with Reform ahead by more than 12 points.

Double-digit swings are now projected in places that were once regarded as immovable.

Kemi Badenoch's "blue wall" is projected to fracture across the south, with Reform on course to take control of Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk.

In East Sussex, West Sussex and Hampshire, the Tories are expected to fall into second or even third place, behind either the Lib Dems or Reform.

The vote share in East Sussex potentially dropping as low as 15 per cent.

Also, the Greens' advance is becoming increasingly tangible.

They are projected to become the largest party in five authorities across England, including the London boroughs of Haringey and Hackney, a significant marker of their growing appeal in urban areas.