SNP on course for majority in Scotland amid mounting calls for second independence referendum

Peter Stevens
Thu, 16 Apr 2026 04:51:11 +0000

The Scottish National Party is on course to sweep Scotland according to a new poll, as calls for a second independence referendum grow.

John Swinney’s party is projected to win 67 seats in the Scottish Parliament, a survey by The Telegraph has found.

The result is one the First Minister said would give him a mandate to negotiate with Westminster on a second vote.

The poll also points to a two-way battle for second place between Labour and Reform UK, with the Conservatives trailing in fourth.

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Mr Swinney has argued that an SNP majority at the May 7 election would serve as a mandate for a second independence referendum, speaking during a televised debate.

When asked when another vote could take place, the SNP leader said it would be “perfectly conceivable” for a referendum to be held by 2028.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said the election is “not about independence”.

Meanwhile, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay warned a break-up of Britain would be an “unmitigated disaster”.

Scottish Green co-leader Ross Greer said the country’s future should be “in Scotland’s hands”.

Reform UK’s Scottish head, Lord Malcolm Offord, said another referendum would be “divisive”, but did not rule out the idea.

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton said he was focused on other issues and had not given a second referendum “a moment’s thought”.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting said earlier this month there would not be another referendum, even if the SNP wins a majority at Holyrood.

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He argued that Labour’s 2024 landslide - which saw the party win 37 of Scotland’s 57 Westminster constituencies - gave Sir Keir Starmer a mandate to refuse another independence referendum.

Scottish Labour is projected to record its worst result since the creation of the Scottish Parliament, finishing second on just 19 seats.

Reform UK is forecast to sit close behind on 17 seats.

The Scottish Conservatives would be pushed into fourth place, with just 10 MSPs.

Neither the Conservatives nor the Greens are projected to win any constituency seats, with the Greens instead expected to secure nine MSPs via the regional list.

The Liberal Democrats are predicted to win seven seats.

Lord Offord has claimed Mr Sarwar approached him at the start of the campaign to “work together” to block an SNP victory.

However, Mr Sarwar rejected the allegation, describing it as a “lie” and “nonsense”.

The poll was conducted using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), widely considered the gold standard for election forecasting as it enables pollsters to estimate results in individual constituencies.

It typically involves larger sample sizes than standard polling and analyses detailed demographic data from both respondents and constituencies.