Mortgage alert: Iran conflict is pushing up costs for UK borrowers, expert warns

Sam Fox
Wed, 15 Apr 2026 15:33:43 +0000

Just as mortgage rates looked like they might finally begin to ease, the market has shifted again.

The conflict involving Iran has introduced fresh uncertainty, and that is already feeding through into the rates being offered to UK borrowers.

While this is not the news many were hoping for, understanding what is driving these changes, and how to respond, can help borrowers stay in control.

There are three main areas I think it's important focus on.

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Why the war is directly affecting mortgage rates:

The connection between global conflict and mortgage rates may not seem obvious at first, but it is actually quite direct.

When conflict disrupts oil and gas supply, energy prices tend to rise. Higher energy costs quickly feed into wider inflation because they impact everything from transport to manufacturing and household bills.

As inflation expectations increase, financial markets adjust. In particular, expectations around future interest rate cuts begin to shift. If inflation is likely to stay higher for longer, the Bank of England is less likely to reduce rates as soon or as quickly as previously hoped.

This matters for borrowers and those looking to move because fixed mortgage rates are based not just on current interest rates, but on where lenders believe rates are heading. When those expectations change, mortgage pricing follows.

So what is happening to rates right now?

A fair bit and we are already seeing changes play out in the market.

Lenders have been repricing quickly as their own funding costs rise and expectations of falling rates weaken. As a result, mortgage rates have moved up noticeably in a short space of time.

The average two-year fixed rate has increased from around 4.8% at the start of March to approximately 5.5% now

The average five-year fixed rate has risen from about 4.95% to around 5.77%

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For a borrower with a £200,000 mortgage over 25 years, that shift could mean roughly £90 more per month, or close to £1,000 a year in additional costs.

At the same time, product availability has tightened. Around 1,500 residential mortgage products have been withdrawn, highlighting how quickly lenders are reacting to changing market conditions.

What should borrowers do now?

In this kind of market, preparation and timing are both key.

If you are offered a rate that fits your budget and plans, it is worth taking seriously. Mortgage products can change or be withdrawn quickly, so having everything in place to act can make a real difference.

That said, this is not about rushing into the wrong deal. It is about:

Knowing what is affordable for you each month

Being organised early, especially if you are remortgaging

Allowing some financial breathing room, rather than stretching to the limit

For buyers, building in a margin for higher costs can help reduce stress if rates move further. For those remortgaging, starting the process early gives more options and avoids last-minute pressure.

While the current shift is unwelcome, it does not mean plans need to be put on hold.

It simply means staying informed, being realistic about costs, and acting decisively when the right opportunity arises.

There's still plenty to be positive about in the market but getting the right advice is probably more important than ever.