Mortgage payments could fall £100 a month as markets react to US-Iran ceasefire

Temie Laleye
Wed, 08 Apr 2026 20:14:44 +0000

Mortgage holders could soon see some relief as global tensions begin to ease and market conditions shift.

A major geopolitical breakthrough is already feeding through into interest rate expectations.

Monthly mortgage payments could fall by £100 by the beginning of next year following the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on Tuesday evening.

Economic forecasters at Capital Economics project that average rates for borrowers with 25 per cent deposits may decline from the current five per cent to approximately 4.3 per cent by January 2027, should the truce hold.

President Donald Trump and Iran's supreme national security council confirmed a two-week pause in hostilities, permitting vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil supplies.

For a homeowner with a £250,000 mortgage, such a reduction would mean savings of around £100 each month compared with today's pricing.

Capital Economics cautioned that "significant hurdles to overcome" remain before the ceasefire translates into a lasting peace, but noted the agreement brings outcomes closer to their baseline projection, where oil prices ease and inflation peaks at roughly 4.5 per cent.

The forecaster also modelled a more troubling scenario should fighting intensify over the coming months and Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel through this year and next.

Under those circumstances, inflation could surge to seven per cent and Britain might tip into recession.

The Bank of England could respond with three rate rises, pushing borrowing costs to 4.5 per cent, which would drive mortgage rates higher still.

Ruth Gregory, deputy UK chief economist at Capital Economics, said: "In our baseline scenario, Brent averages around $95 per barrel in the second quarter of the year before easing towards $80 per barrel by the final quarter."

Despite the positive outlook, hundreds of thousands of homeowners face a painful adjustment regardless of how the ceasefire unfolds.

Approximately 550,000 borrowers secured five-year fixed deals in 2021, according to UK Finance data, when average quoted rates sat between 1.3 per cent and 1.6 per cent.

These households will need to remortgage over the coming months at vastly higher costs, even if rates do fall towards 4 per cent.

The increase will prove steeper than many anticipated before the Middle East conflict erupted, adding further pressure to household budgets.

Borrowers typically can only secure a new fixed rate between three and six months before their existing arrangement expires, meaning those with deals concluding in summer or autumn are monitoring the market anxiously, hoping rates stabilise before they must commit.

Elliott Culley, director of Switch Mortgage Finance, said: "We are now coming to the tail end of clients who still have rates beginning with a 1. Rates increasing now will unfortunately mean higher costs for them unless there are some significant changes."

David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, added: "If the spike in rates continues it will be bad news for all mortgage borrowers but it could hardly come at a worse time for those borrowers reaching the end of an ultra-low rate.

"Shopping around and taking advice to try and keep on top of what's happening will be the best approach as there's still many ways that this could play out."

Industry experts recommend that borrowers approaching the end of their current deals seek professional guidance and compare offers across multiple lenders to secure the most competitive terms available.