Keir Starmer's clutch on northern cities under threat as Reform ties neck-and-neck with Labour in key seats

Susanna Siddell
Mon, 13 Apr 2026 23:01:02 +0000
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Sir Keir Starmer's clutch on seats across several northern cities could be under threat at the next general election, a new poll has revealed.

Reform UK has become Labour's main rival in key seats across Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester and Liverpool – all of which were once strongholds for the mainstream party.

Overall, the pollsters at More in Common have shown they expect Labour to fall to 101 seats across the UK at the next general election, losing 310 MPs to their competitors.

Now, Labour's grip on the region appears to have been tested by Nigel Farage's party in the four cities, according to the latest MRP poll.

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GB News has analysed the forecasted vote shares across Labour held seats across the four cities and where they are set to be booted out by Reform UK.

The assessment has subsequently revealed there are several key seats across the northern cities where voters could tilt the pendulum in Mr Farage's favour.

While Labour's grasp is stronger in Liverpool and Manchester, Reform UK often takes home upwards of 20 per cent of support across the cities.

On the whole, Reform UK fares much better in the poll across Sheffield and Leeds, taking home several seats in the process.

More in Common UK Director Luke Tryl said: "If anything, what this latest model shows is that Labour, in a mirror of what faced the Tories in 2024, now faces a very real war on two fronts.

"Losing 100s of seats to Reform, while at the same time being threatened by Polanski’s Greens in their former urban strongholds."

SHEFFIELD

Across Sheffield, both Reform UK and the Greens are set to reap the benefits of voters' disillusionment with Sir Keir's party.

Reform UK is forecast to take home Sheffield South East with a five-point lead, while the Greens would take Sheffield Central and Sheffield Heeley.

The forecast results:

Sheffield Hallam: Labour HOLD

Labour: 31 per cent

Reform UK: 14 per cent

Greens: 15 per cent

Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough: Labour HOLD

Labour: 26 per cent

Reform UK: 22 per cent

Greens: 22 per cent

Sheffield South East

Labour: 23 per cent

Reform UK: 28 per cent

Greens: 14 per cent

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LEEDS

Leeds paints a unique picture with a double Reform UK gain in Leeds East and Leeds West and Pudsey, which is Chancellor Rachel Reeves's current seat.

While Labour is set to keep a hold on two seats across the city, it has tied neck-and-neck with Reform UK in Leeds North West.

The forecast results:

Leeds North West - Labour HOLD

Labour: 26 per cent

Reform UK: 26 per cent

Greens: 14 per cent

Leeds North East - Labour HOLD

Labour: 32 per cent

Reform UK: 19 per cent

Greens: 24 per cent

Leeds West and Pudsey - Reform GAIN

Labour 27 per cent

Reform UK 29 per cent

Greens 17 per cent

Leeds East - Reform GAIN

Labour 25 per cent

Reform UK: 33 per cent

Greens 15 per cent

MANCHESTER

In Manchester, Labour will keep its six seats, although Reform UK has secured its runner-up position in every seat across the major city.

The forecast results:

Manchester Central - Labour HOLD

Labour: 29 per cent

Reform UK: 22 per cent

Greens: 29 per cent

Salford - Labour HOLD

Labour: 33 per cent

Reform UK: 27 per cent

Greens: 18 per cent

Streford and Urmston - Labour HOLD

Labour: 30 per cent

Reform UK: 24 per cent

Greens: 20 per cent

Manchester Withington - Labour HOLD

Labour 35 per cent

Reform UK: 12 per cent

Greens: 34 per cent

Wythenshawe and Sale East - Labour HOLD

Labour: 30 per cent

Reform UK: 27 per cent

Greens: 19 per cent

Stockport - Labour HOLD

Labour: 30 per cent

Reform UK: 25 per cent

Greens: 20 per cent

LIVERPOOL

Over in Liverpool, Labour has a firmer grasp on its seats. The party is currently looking at upwards of 38 per cent of the vote across five city seats.

The forecast results:

Liverpool Garston - Labour HOLD

Labour: 38 per cent

Reform UK: 23 per cent

Greens: 12 per cent

Liverpool Wavertree - Labour HOLD

Labour: 38 per cent

Reform UK: 16 per cent

Greens: 29 per cent

Liverpool Riverside - Labour HOLD

Labour: 37 per cent

Reform UK: 19 per cent

Greens: 28 per cent

Liverpool West Derby - Labour HOLD

Labour: 40 per cent

Reform UK: 24 per cent

Greens: 16 per cent

Liverpool Walton - Labour HOLD

Labour 41 per cent

Reform UK: 28 per cent

Greens 13 per cent